手机信息干预下寒冷赛区行人候车决策行为

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb20210517

Abstract

Abstract:

In cold mega-competition events， in order to alleviate pedestrians suffering from severe weather such as low temperature， wind and snow while waiting for a long time in the bus station， and improve the quality of travel service in the area， a decision-making guidance and passenger flow control method was proposed based on mobile information intervention from the perspective of information service. Based on the results of questionnaire survey， the characteristics of waiting behavior in cold environment were analyzed， and a decision-making behavior model for pedestrians waiting for bus was established based on the Nested Logit model. With the model， the coupling influence of multiple factors on pedestrians' decision-making behavior was discussed and the sensitivity analysis of key variable was carried out. The management suggestions were put forward from the content and frequency of information release. The results show that， compared with the traditional stop sign information， mobile phone information intervention can help to improve the probability of temporary heating and improve the service experience of pedestrians. With the interference of mobile information， pedestrians' decision-making behavior is mainly affected by the layout of temporary heating places and the time from the start of competition. At this time， it is suggested that managers should focus on the information about temporary heating and competition when formulating the content of mobile information. When the frequency of information release is twice per hour， the probability of pedestrians receiving information guidance reaches the highest， which is about 36.6%， indicating that the control effect of information intervention reaches the best. The research can provide theoretical basis and data support for the intervention of passenger flow and the improvement of information service level in the competition area.

Key words: engineering of communication and transportation system, cold events, information intervention, discrete choice model, decision-making behavior

CLC Number:

U491.4

Wen-bo HUANG,Yan-yan CHEN,Shu-shan CHAI. Decision⁃making behavior of pedestrians in cold competition area under the intervention of mobile information[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2023, 53(1): 132-140.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Table 1

Fig.5

Fig.6

Table 2

Calibration results of NL model （level 1）"

变量	受手机信息干预			只受传统站牌信息干预
变量	Estimate	Std. Err.	t?Test	Estimate	Std. Err.	t?Test
固有哑元	-3.189	1.816	-1.756	1.824	0.939	1.943
距离比赛时间	-1.009	0.308	-3.275	-0.030	0.003	-9.557
景观环境	-0.720	0.446	-1.615	-0.347	0.198	-1.756
取暖地点布设	1.122	0.347	3.236	0.429	0.191	2.253
公交发车时间	-0.416	0.347	-1.199	-0.325	0.197	-1.650
比赛期待程度	-0.429	0.208	-2.060	0.158	0.248	0.634
寒冷感知	0.066	0.379	0.176	-0.555	0.214	-2.598
室外最大候车时间	0.006	0.003	1.682	0.006	0.002	3.201
信息发布频次	1.155	0.461	2.503	0.325	0.197	1.648
职业1	-0.987	0.569	-1.734	-0.185	0.246	-0.751
职业2	0.562	0.767	0.733	-0.627	0.325	-1.928
气温	-0.133	0.115	-1.157	-0.180	0.064	-2.816
风速	2.020	1.209	1.670	-1.460	0.633	-2.306
$L (0)$	-224.580			-482.430
$L (θ ?)$	-173.185			-394.070
$- 2 [L (0) - L (θ ?)]$	102.789			176.720
$ρ 2$	0.229			0.183
$ρ ˉ 2$	0.131			0.148

Table 2

Table 3

Calibration results of NL model （level 2）"

变量	受手机信息干预	只受传统站牌信息干预
变量	Estimate	Std. Err.	t?Test
Constant 1	0.343	0.826	0.416
距离比赛时间	-0.007	0.003	-2.552
景观环境	-0.942	0.201	-4.689
取暖地点布设	0.411	0.171	2.404
公交发车时间	-0.674	0.179	-3.767
比赛期待程度	0.616	0.149	4.149
寒冷感知	-0.506	0.185	-2.731
室外最大候车时间	-0.004	0.002	-2.189
职业1	0.807	0.238	3.384
职业2	-1.605	0.272	-5.906
候车点客流量	-0.961	0.185	-5.205
公交载客人数	-1.152	0.220	-5.235
信息发布频次	0.331	0.164	2.020
$λ 2$	0.482	0.189	2.549
$L (0)$	-707.010
$L (θ ?)$	-557.129
$- 2 [L (0) - L (θ ?)]$	299.763
$ρ 2$	0.212
$ρ ˉ 2$	0.177

Table 3

Table 4

Fig.7

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基本属性	统计分析
性别	男性		女性
性别	39%		61%
年龄/岁	<20	20~40	40~60	≥60
年龄/岁	13.4%	58.4%	15.7%	12.5%
月收入/万元	<0.5	0.5~1	1~1.5	≥1.5
月收入/万元	70.1%	23.2%	4.7%	2.0%
教育程度	高中及以下	本专科	硕士及以上	—
教育程度	27.0%	54.9%	18.1%	—
职业	机关及事业单位人员	学生	企业或技术人员	自由职业及退休人员
职业	22.7%	35.7%	23.3%	18.3%
居住地区	东北地区	华北地区	港澳台地区	其他地区
居住地区	80.5%	8.7%	2.3%	8.5%

行为	受手机信息干预/%	只受传统站牌信息干预/%
室外候车	49.4	55.7
临时取暖	50.6	44.3

Decision⁃making behavior of pedestrians in cold competition area under the intervention of mobile information

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