吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2012, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (增刊1): 193-197.

Previous Articles     Next Articles

Real-time prediction method of slop displacement based on time series analysis

LIU Han-bing, LI Guo-heng, TAN Guo-jin, SUN Yan-yi   

  1. College of Transportation, Jilin University, Chanchun 130022, China
  • Received:2011-12-30 Online:2012-09-01 Published:2012-09-01

Abstract: In order to monitor the slope deformation at any time, accurately analyze and predict the trend of slop displacement deformation accurately, and ensure slope stability and reliability, a prediction model of the slope deformation trend was proposed based on time series methods and combined with the previous slope displacement monitoring data. Real-time prediction method of slop displacement based on time series was proposed. The feasibility of this method was verified after testing it on the metro west railway station in Changchun. The results can provide a new idea for slope stability analysis.

Key words: road engineering, time series, slop deformation, displacement monitoring, real-time prediction

CLC Number: 

  • U416.1
[1] 文海家,张永兴,柳源. 滑坡预报国内外研究动态及发展趋势[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2004,15(1):1-4. Wen Hai-jia, Zhang Yong-xing, Liu Yuan. A home and abroad investigative-tendency of landslide forecast[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2004,15(1):1-4.

[2] 单新建,叶洪,李焯芬. 基于环境因子AI-GIS方法的天然滑坡危险性预测——以香港大屿岛为例[J]. 地质科技情报,2004,23(3):109-112. Shan Xin-jian, Ye Hong, Li Zhuo-fen. Prediction of regional landslide danger areas using ai-gis based on environment factors:an example of lantau island,hongkong[J]. Geological Science and Technology Information, 2004,23(3):109-112.

[3] 刘小伟,刘高,谌文武. 降雨对边坡变形破坏影响的综合分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报,2003,22(增刊2):2715-2718. Liu Xiao-wei, Liu Gao, Zhan Wen-wu. Analysis on rainfall influence on slope deformation and failure[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2003,22(Sup.2):2715-2718.

[4] 方建瑞,许志雄,庄晓莹. 三维边坡稳定弹塑性有限元分析与评价[J]. 岩土力学,2008,29(10):2667-2672. Fang Jian-rui, Xu Zhi-xiong, Zhuang Xiao-ying. Appraisal and analysis of three-dimensional slope stability based on elastoplastic FEM[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2008,29(10):2667-2672.

[5] 杨健,王玉杰,陈祖煜. 三维极限分析方法在恰甫其海水利工程边坡稳定分析中的应用[J]. 水利学报,2003(11):102-105. Yang Jian, Wang Yu-jie, Chen Zu-yu. Application of 3-D limit analysis method in slope stability analysis[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2003(11):102-105.

[6] 刘耀儒,黄跃群,杨强,等. 基于变形加固理论的岩土边坡稳定和加固分析[J]. 岩土力学,2011,32(11):3350-3354. Liu Yao-ru, Huang Yue-qun, Yang Qiang, et al. Stability and reinforcement analysis of rock and soil slope based on deformation reinforcement theory[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics,2011,32(11):3350-3354.

[7] 高玮,冯夏庭. 基于灰色-进化神经网络的滑坡变形预测研究[J]. 岩土力学,2004,25(4):514-517. Gao Wei, Feng Xia-ting. Study on displacement predication of landslide based on grey system and evolutionary neural network[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2004,25(4):514-517.

[8] 黄志全,崔江利,刘汉东. 边坡稳定性预测的混沌神经网络方法[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(22):3808-3812. Huang Zhi-quan, Cui Jiang-li, Liu Han-dong. Chaotic neural network method for slope stability prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2004,23(22):3808-3812.

[9] 谭国金,王龙林,程永春. 基于灰色系统理论的寒冷地区斜拉桥索力状态预测方法[J]. 吉林大学学报:工学版,2011,41(增刊2):170-173. Tan Guo-jin, Wang Long-lin, Cheng Yong-chun. Prediction method for cable tension state of cable-stayed bridges based on grey system theory in cold areas[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2011,41(Sup.2):170-173.

[10] 蒋刚,林鲁生,刘祖德,等. 边坡变形的灰色预测模型[J]. 岩土力学,2000,21(3):244-246. Jiang Gang, Lin Lu-sheng, Liu Zu-de,et al. Prediction grey model for slope displacement[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2000,21(3):244-246.

[11] Brockwell P J, Davis R A. Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting[M]. Second Edition. New York: Springer-Ver-lag, 2002.

[12] 欧进萍,何林,肖仪清. 基于ARMA模型和自由振动提取技术的海洋平台结构参数识别[J]. 应用数学和力学,2003,24(4):398-404. Ou Jin-ping, He Lin, Xiao Yi-qing. Parameters identification in offshore platform using ARMA model and technology of extracting free vibration signal[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2003,24(4):398-404.

[13] Li Song-chen, Zhang Shi-ying. Cointegration research ofageneral vertor ARFIMA model based on independent components analysis[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium University Nankaiensis,2007,40(5): 40-45.
[1] LI Yi,LIU Li-ping,SUN Li-jun. Prediction model on rutting equivalent temperature for asphalt pavement at different depth [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2018, 48(6): 1703-1711.
[2] ZANG Guo-shuai, SUN Li-jun. Method based on inertial point for setting depth to rigid layer [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(4): 1037-1044.
[3] NIAN Teng-fei, LI Ping, LIN Mei. Micro-morphology and gray entropy analysis of asphalt characteristics functional groups and rheological parameters under freeze-thaw cycles [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(4): 1045-1054.
[4] GONG Ya-feng, SHEN Yang-fan, TAN Guo-jin, HAN Chun-peng, HE Yu-long. Unconfined compressive strength of fiber soil with different porosity [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(3): 712-719.
[5] LIU Shu, JIANG Qi-gang, ZHU Hang, LI Xiao-dong. Reconstruction of Landsat NDVI time series of Xianghai natural deserve based on a hybrid filtering algorithm Hyb-F [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(3): 957-967.
[6] CHENG Yong-chun, BI Hai-peng, MA Gui-rong, GONG Ya-feng, TIAN Zhen-hong, LYU Ze-hua, XU Zhi-shu. Pavement performance of nano materials-basalt fiber compound modified asphalt binder [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(2): 460-465.
[7] ZHANG Yang-peng, WEI Hai-bin, JIA Jiang-kun, CHEN Zhao. Numerical evaluation on application of roadbed with composite cold resistance layer inseasonal frozen area [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(1): 121-126.
[8] JI Wen-yu, LI Wang-wang, GUO Min-long, WANG Jue. Experimentation and calculation methods of prestressed RPC-NC composite beam deflection [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(1): 129-136.
[9] MA Ye, NI Ying-sheng, XU Dong, DIAO Bo. External prestressed strengthening based on analysis of spatial grid model [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(1): 137-147.
[10] LUO Rong, ZENG Zhe, ZHANG De-run, FENG Guang-le, DONG Hua-jun. Moisture stability evaluation of asphalt mixture based on film pressure model of Wilhelmy plate method [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(6): 1753-1759.
[11] WAN Ping, WU Chao-zhong, LIN Ying-zi, MA Xiao-feng. Driving anger detection based on multivariate time series features of driving behavior [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(5): 1426-1435.
[12] NI Ying-sheng, MA Ye, XU Dong, LI Jin-kai. Space mesh analysis method for shear lag effect of cable-stayed bridge with corrugated steel webs [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(5): 1453-1464.
[13] ZHENG Chuan-feng, MA Zhuang, GUO Xue-dong, ZHANG Ting, LYU Dan, Qin Yong. Coupling effect of the macro and micro characteristics of mineral powder on the low-temperature performance of asphalt mortar [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(5): 1465-1471.
[14] YU Tian-lai, ZHENG Bin-shuang, LI Hai-sheng, TANG Ze-rui, ZHAO Yun-peng. Analyses of defects and causes of steel-plastic compound reinforced retaining wall [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(4): 1082-1093.
[15] CAI Yang, FU Wei, TAO Ze-feng, CHEN Kang-wei. Influence analysis of geotextile on reducing traffic induced reflective cracking using extended finite element model [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(3): 765-770.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!