吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2014, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (3): 686-691.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb201403017

• Orignal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Reliability growth prediction based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process for punching machines

YANG Zhao-jun,WANG Ji-li,LI Guo-fa,ZHANG Xin-ge   

  1. College of Mechanical Science and Engineering,Jilin University,Changchun 130022,China
  • Received:2013-02-26 Online:2014-03-01 Published:2014-03-01

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Abstract:

A reliability growth prediction model is established based on Weibull distribution. Considering factors influencing the reliability of the punching machines, the factor weights are determined by fuzzy scoring and analytical hierarchy process. The punching machine is partitioned into six serial subsystems. Comparing the reliability status of every subsystem, reliability growth coefficient is proposed based on reliability influencing factor weight and fuzzy scoring. Reliability prediction model is established by combining reliability growth effective coefficient and the Monte Carlo simulation. The model can be used to predict the reliability index. Comparison of the predicted reliability and the actual reliability index indicates that the proposed method is practicable.

Key words: machinery manufacturing automation, punching machine reliability, Weibull distribution, fuzzy scoring, analytical hierarchy process, reliability growth effective coefficient, Monte Carlo simulation

CLC Number: 

  • TG659
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