Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition) ›› 2023, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (7): 1981-1993.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20211037

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Travel mode choice of traditional car travelers after implementation of driving restriction policy

Zhuang-lin MA1(),Shan-shan CUI2,Da-wei HU1,Jin WANG3   

  1. 1.College of Transportation Engineering，Chang'an University，Xi'an 710064，China
    2.Shandong Provincial Communications Planning and Design Institute Group Co. ，Ltd. ，Jinan 250031，China
    3.Yunnan Science Research Institute of Communication Co. ，Ltd. ，Kunming 650011，China
  • Received:2021-10-11 Online:2023-07-01 Published:2023-07-20

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Abstract:

Taking traditional car travelers in Xi'an as the research object， a questionnaire combining the revealed preference and stated preference was designed to obtain the travel mode choice behavior of car travelers in specific scenarios. The CHAID decision tree method was used to divide the categories of traditional car travelers. The fixed parameter logit and random parameter logit model were used to establish travel mode choice models of different groups under the driving restriction policy（DRP）， and both two models were compared. The results show that traditional car travelers can be divided into four categories， namely young travelers with only one car， middle-aged travelers with only one car， elderly travelers with only one car， and travelers with multiple cars. The fitting effect of random parameter logit models outperform those of fixed parameter logit models. The low-income young and middle-aged travelers with only one car are more likely to choose public transport under the DRP. Improving the service level of public transport is helpful to attract travelers with only one car to choose public transport on restricted days. Uncongested road is helpful to attract travelers with two or more cars to choose public transport on restricted days. The research conclusions can provide theoretical support for traffic management authorities to formulate differentiated DRPs.

Key words: traffic engineering, driving restriction policy, decision tree, random parameter logit model, travel mode choice

CLC Number: 

  • U491

Table 1

Hypothetical scenarios of three situationalfactors"

水平值道路交通状况限行感知效果公共交通服务水平
1非常拥堵效果不明显较差
2有些拥堵略有效果一般
3不拥堵效果显著较好

Table 2

Orthogonal test scheme based on orthogonaltable L9（34）"

序号道路交通状况限行感知效果公共交通服务水平
1111
2122
3133
4212
5223
6231
7313
8321
9333

Fig.1

Sample characteristics of respondents"

Table 3

Description of variables"

类别变量定义
社会经济属性性别男性=0，女性=1
年龄（<25岁）<25岁=1，否则=0
年龄（25-35岁）25-35岁=1，否则=0
年龄（36-45岁）36-45岁=1，否则=0
年龄（>45岁）*>45岁=1，否则=0
职业固定职业=0，自由职业=1
低收入（<5000元）<5000元=1，否则=0
中收入（5000-15000元）5000-15000元=1，否则=0
高收入（>15000元）*>15000元=1，否则=0
家庭结构（单人家庭）*单人家庭=1，否则=0
家庭结构（夫妻家庭）夫妻家庭=1，否则=0
家庭结构（多人家庭）多人家庭=1，否则=0
接送孩子情况不接送=0，接送=1
私家车拥有量1辆=0，2辆及以上=1
出发时间在7：00之前出发*7：00之前=1，否则=0
在7：00–9：00出发7：00–9：00=1，否则=0
在9：00以后出发9：00之后=1，否则=0
出行时间<30分钟*<30 min=1，否则=0
30-60分钟30-60 min=1，否则=0
60-90分钟60-90 min=1，否则=0
>90分钟>90min=1，否则=0
出行距离<3km*<3km=1，否则=0
3-10km以内3-10km=1，否则=0
>10km>10km=1，否则=0
道路交通状况非常拥堵非常拥堵=1，否则=0
有些拥堵有些拥堵=1，否则=0
不拥堵*不拥堵=1，否则=0
限行感知效果效果不明显*效果不明显=1，否则=0
略有效果略有效果=1，否则=0
效果显著效果显著=1，否则=0
公共交通服务水平较差*较差=1，否则=0
一般一般=1，否则=0
较好较好=1，否则=0

Fig.2

Car traveler classification based on CHAID decision tree"

Table 4

Estimated results of FPL and RPL model （model Ⅰ）"

变量FPL模型RPL模型
参数值OR值参数值OR值
截距项-2.428***--3.76***-
月收入（参照项：>15 000元）<5000元1.936***6.934.313***74.66
5000~15 000元1.691**5.423.040**20.91
出行时间（参照项：<60 min）60~90 min1.799***6.044.814***123.22
>90 min2.176***8.816.074***434.41
出行距离（参照项：<3 km）3~10 km-0.648**0.52--
>10 km-1.441***0.24--
公共交通服务水平（参照项：较差）较好2.182***8.685.567***261.65
s.d.--3.002**-
误差项—2.846***
LL（0）-596.1066-596.1066
LL（β）-439.8445-395.2039
AIC895.69806.41
BIC933.74844.46

Table 5

Estimated results of FPL and RPL model （model Ⅱ）"

变量FPL模型RPL模型
参数值OR值参数值OR值
截距项-0.902***--0.908***-
性别（参照项：男性）女性0.498**1.650.452*1.57
月收入（参照项：>15 000元）<5000元0.629**1.880.863***2.37
是否接送孩子（参照项：否）是-0.411**0.66--
出行时间（参照项：<60 min）60~90 min0.995***2.701.114***3.05
出行距离（参照项：<3 km）>10 km-0.485**0.62--
公共交通服务水平（参照项：较差）较好0.706***2.020.864***2.37
s.d.--0.687**-
误差项-0.731***
LL（0）-521.2467-521.2467
LL（β）-408.1907-402.4974
AIC830.38816.99
BIC862.74844.73

Table 6

Estimated results of FPL and RPL model （model Ⅲ）"

变量FPL模型RPL模型
参数值OR值参数值OR值
截距项-2.05**--1.423**-
职业（参照项：固定）自由职业-0.935*0.39-1.693**0.18
家庭结构（参照项：单人家庭）夫妻家庭2.297**9.94--
多人家庭2.752**15.671.199*3.31
出行时间（参照项：<60 min）60~90 min3.096***22.115.024***152.02
>90 min3.738***42.016.172***479.14
出行距离（参照项：<3 km）3~10 km-0.671*0.51--
>10 km-3.041***0.04-3.904***0.02
限行效果（参照项：效果不明显）效果显著1.361***3.901.588***4.89
s.d.--1.547**-
公共交通服务水平（参照项：较差）较好1.009***2.741.752***5.77
误差项-1.293***
LL（0）-216.2619-216.2619
LL（β）-168.6237-162.5274
AIC357.25343.05
BIC394.67376.74

Table 7

Estimated results of FPL and RPL model （model Ⅳ）"

变量FPL模型RPL模型
参数值OR值参数值OR值
截距项-0.763*--0.823*-
出发时间（参照项：7∶00前）7∶00~9∶00-2.117***0.12-2.746**0.06
出行时间（参照项：<60 min）60~90 min1.919***6.813.271***26.33
>90 min1.748***5.743.550***34.81
出行距离（参照项：<3 km）3~10 km-0.989**0.37--
>10 km-1.278***0.28-1.527***0.22
交通拥堵状况（参照项：不拥堵）非常拥堵-1.940***0.14-3.670*0.03
限行效果（参照项：效果不明显）略有效果2.385***10.86--
效果显著4.503***90.283.053***21.18
s.d.--3.249**3.49
误差项-1.298***
LL（0）-288.3492-288.3492
LL（β）-181.6887-165.5023
AIC381.38347
BIC417.65379.25

Table 8

Common influencing factors of different car travelers' travel mode choice"

出行者月收入出发时间出行时间出行距离公共交通服务水平限行效果交通拥堵状况
有1辆车青年√√√
有1辆车壮年√√√
有1辆车中老年√√√√
有多辆车√√√√√
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