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Prediction Model of Road Transportation Volume Based on System Dynamics

WANG Yunpeng， YANG Zhifa， LI Shiwu， KUI Hailin， WANG Lifang   

  1. College of Transportation, Jilin University,Changchun 130022, China
  • Received:2004-11-18 Revised:2004-12-26 Online:2005-07-01 Published:2005-07-01
  • Contact: WANG Yunpeng

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Abstract: To overcome the weak point of less consideration on the system factors in the road transportation volume prediction approaches, a model based on the system dynamics was established to predict the road passenger and freight trausportation supplies and demands on the basis of analysis of the main influence factors of the road transportation system and their causalities. The proposed model was verified by simulation using the relevant statistical data of Jilin province road transportation volume and its feasibility and efficiency were proved.

Key words: transportation system engineering, road transportation volume, prediction model, system dynamics

CLC Number: 

  • U491.14
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