关键词: 松辽盆地, 齐家-古龙凹陷, 灰色GM（1, 1）模型, 储量预测, 勘探潜力

Abstract: Qijia-Gulong depression is master source area of oil and gas in Songliao Basin, a part of oil and gas from the source is held up in the depression, the other migrates to west clinoform zone. In order to calculate oil and gas reserves and its distribution in the half western depression and the west clinoform zone, on the basis of petroleum geological feature, gray GM(1,1) model about distance array is established. The assemble reserves of oil and gas and its distribution scale in every zone is calculated with this model, and according to this, after calculating discharge hydrocarbons quantity by genetic method, the reserve distribution in each zone on the west of centerline is calculated on different accumulative coefficient. According to conditions of hydrocarbons migration and gathering and preserving in Qijia-Gulong depression and west slope zone, combining exploration experience to Songliao Basin, selecting suitable accumulative coefficient, the final reserves to be possible explored is calculated that there are oil (4.4-6.2)×10⁸ t，natural gas (770-1 078)×10⁸ m³ in the west slope zone, and oil (1.0-1.3)×10⁸ t，natural gas (208.4-291.7)×10⁸ m³ in the half western Qijia-Gulong depression.

Key words: Songliao Basin, Qijia-Gulong depression, grey GM(1, 1) model, reserves calculation, potential exploration resources