Abstract:

In order to diagnose the traffic situation in confluence area from the perspective of traffic infarction， a diagnosis model for traffic situation is proposed with the traffic breakdown probability as the traffic infarction indicator. Based on the proposed model， on the one hand， the satisfaction conditions of model parameters were explored， on the other hand， the traffic situation was investigated with the control variable method and the calibrated model， and the analysis results were discussed and control strategies were proposed. Results show that it is difficult for the traffic flow to leave the confluence area in time when v is small， and P increases when q or r continues to increase. The traffic flow can leave the confluence area in time when v is large， and P is relatively small， but P increases with the continuous increase of q or r. When the traffic flow is known， proper adjustment of v can help reduce P.

Key words: traffic engineering, traffic conditions, traffic infarction, confluence area, control variable method