Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition) ›› 2024, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (4): 987-995.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20221036

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Influencing factors and heterogeneity analysis of highway traffic accidents

Xiao-hua ZHAO1(),Chang LIU1,Hang QI1,Ju-shang OU2(),Ying YAO1,Miao GUO1,Hai-yi YANG1   

  1. 1.Beijing Key Lab oratory of Transportation，Beijing University of Technology，Beijing 100124，China
    2.Key Laboratory of Intelligent Police of Sichuan Province，Sichuan Police College，Chengdu 646000，China
  • Received:2022-09-12 Online:2024-04-01 Published:2024-05-17
  • Contact: Ju-shang OU E-mail:zhaoxiaohua@bjut.edu.cn;oujushang1973@163.com

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Abstract:

In this paper， we analyze the influencing factors of highway traffic accidents from four aspects： road alignment conditions， traffic operation status， weather environment conditions and aggressive driving behavior， using a random parameter logit model and focusing on the unobserved data heterogeneity. The results showed that plane alignment， longitudinal alignment， congestion index， speed coefficient of variation， weather conditions， wind level， frequency of aggressive acceleration behavior and frequency of aggressive deceleration behavior all had significant effects on freeway traffic accidents； meanwhile， unobserved heterogeneity was found in the four variables of longitudinal alignment， congestion index， frequency of aggressive acceleration behavior and frequency of aggressive deceleration behavior， and the frequency of aggressive deceleration behavior and congestion index， frequency of aggressive There were interactions between the frequency of rapid acceleration behavior and the frequency of rapid deceleration behavior. The paper provides a scientific and reasonable explanation for the causes of highway traffic accidents and provides theoretical support for the scientific management of highway accidents.

Key words: transportation planning and management, freeway, safety analysis, influencing factor, driving behavior, unobserved heterogeneity

CLC Number: 

  • U491.31

Fig.1

Schematic diagram of research road"

Table 1

Road section division rules"

路段单元平面线形纵面线形线形组合
1直线路段上坡路段直线-上坡路段
2直线路段下坡路段直线-下坡路段
3直线路段竖曲线路段直线-竖曲线路段
4曲线路段上坡路段曲线-上坡路段
5曲线路段下坡路段曲线-下坡路段
6曲线路段竖曲线路段曲线-竖曲线路段

Table 2

Statistical description of variables"

变量类型变量名称变量类别连续型变量离散型变量
平均值标准差最小值最大值样本量比例/%
因变量未发生事故80480.0
发生事故20120.0
路段长度0.4430.4780.0071.625
道路线形条件平面线形直线路段64464.1
曲线路段36135.9
纵面线形上坡路段39739.5
下坡路段29529.4
竖曲线路段31331.1
交通运行状态拥堵指数1.1390.6050.87212.018
速度变异系数0.0400.0440.0070.830
环境条件天气一般天气81080.6
小雨3219.4
风力等级0.9530.72304
激进驾驶行为急加速行为频率0.0030.0160.0000.0257
急减速行为频率0.0040.0400.0000.117

Table 3

Variable collinearity diagnosis"

变量VIF1/VIF
纵面线形—上坡1.6860.593
纵面线形—竖曲线1.5890.629
纵面线形—下坡1.2580.795
路段长度1.1720.853
速度变异系数1.1020.908
拥堵指数1.0800.926
平面线形1.0490.953
风力等级1.0400.961
天气1.0380.963
急加速行为频率1.0340.967
急减速行为频率1.0170.983

Table 4

Model calibration results"

变量名称多项logit随机参数logit平均边际系数
参数估计z-stat参数估计z-stat
截距项-7.153-11.29-7.465-11.19-
道路线形条件路段长度3.02113.023.13712.720.186 4
平面线形0.5632.490.4681.960.021 4
纵面线形-下坡---0.284-2.25-0.022 6
纵面线形-竖曲线1.4275.541.0992.820.059 4
纵面线形-竖曲线的标准差--1.5092.28-
交通运行状态拥堵指数2.0624.446.5042.510.175 6
拥堵指数的标准差--2.3082.34-
速度变异系数14.0472.7714.0462.680.041 5
环境条件天气1.6723.281.7483.130.006 8
风力等级0.9361.990.9751.870.002 5
激进驾驶行为急减速行为频率30.6961.85302.2623.120.001 8
急减速行为频率的标准差--368.0822.70-
急加速行为频率315.2764.65690.4213.220.011 1
急加速行为频率的标准差--643.3402.17-
模型估计样本量1 0051 005
仅含常数的对数似然-502.904-502.904
模型收敛的对数似然-287.138-278.793
R-sqrd0.4290.600
AIC592.3577.6

Fig.2

Probability density distribution of random parameters"

Table 5

Random parameter correlation coefficient matrix"

变量纵面线形-竖曲线拥堵指数急加速行为频率急减速行为频率
纵面线形-竖曲线1.0000.8080.2390.083
拥堵指数0.8081.0000.5120.561*
急加速行为频率0.2390.5121.0000.334*
急减速行为频率0.0830.561*0.334*1.000
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