吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2015, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (5): 1408-1413.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb201505005

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Stochastic user equilibrium traffic assignment model consisting fluctuations in traffic flows

WEI Chong1, 2, SHAO Chun-fu1   

  1. 1.MOE Key Laboratory for Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China;
    2.Center of Cooperative Innovation for Beijing Metropolitan Transportation, Beijing 100124, China
  • Received:2013-04-27 Online:2015-09-01 Published:2015-09-01

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Abstract: The stochastic nature of traffic flow in stochastic user equilibrium networks was investigated. Based on the random utility theory, a stochastic traffic assignment model that can reflect the probability distribution of traffic flow was constructed using Baye's theorem. Driver's route choice behavior and the uncertainty in road capacity were taken into account in the model as the sources of fluctuation in traffic flow. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was also developed in order to estimate the characteristics of traffic flows from the probability distribution. The proposed model was tested on a medium-sized network. Results show that the model can be used to evaluate the effects of route choice behavior and uncertainty in road capacity on the fluctuations in traffic flows.

Key words: engineering of communication and transportation, stochastic user equilibrium, probability distribution of traffic flows, Baye's theorem, random utility theory

CLC Number: 

  • U491
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