城市公交车辆驻站时间特征分析及预测

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb20200676

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to accurately analyze the characteristics of bus dwelling time and forecast the dwelling time, this paper analyzes the time structure of bus dwelling process. The concept of station service time is introduced to quantify the length of time that a vehicle is used for passengers to get on and off the train in the process of station service. According to the analysis of manual survey data, it is concluded that the boarding time and alighting time are the influencing factors of the station service time and dwelling time. Compared with the alighting time, the correlations between boarding time and station service time, and between boarding time and dwelling time are stronger, and the maximum value of both has the strongest correlation with the station service time and dwelling time. This paper analyzes the impact of congestion situation inside the bus on the boarding time and alighting time of passengers, as well as the influence of the payment method, age and load of passengers on the boarding time. This paper introduces the concept of vehicle stop deviation distance, and analyzes the influence of the degree of vehicle stop deviation and the number of passengers on the boarding delay loss time, and the influence of vehicle waiting time on the departure delay loss time. Based on the above analysis results, a BP neural network model with eight input layers is constructed. The goodness of fit between the training results and the prediction results is 0.915 and 0.955 respectively, which has a good forecasting effect.

Key words: urban traffic, bus, dwelling time, time lost due to delay, station time, BP neural network, prediction of the dwelling time

CLC Number:

U491.1

Shi-jun YANG,Yu-long PEI,Heng-yan PAN,Guo-zhu CHENG,Wen-hui ZHANG. Characteristics analysising and prediction of dwelling time of urban bus[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2021, 51(6): 2031-2039.

Figures/Tables 16

Fig.1

Table 1

Time parameter and its interpretation"

参数	含义	参数	含义
$t 1$	车辆进站停车	$t 5$	乘客停止下车，车辆后门关闭
$t 2$	车辆后门开启，乘客开始下车	$t 6$	乘客上车结束，车辆前门关闭
$t 3$	车辆前门开启	$t 7$	前车起步出发
$t 4$	乘客开始上车	$t 8$	车辆起步出站

Table 1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

Fig.6

Fig.7

Fig.8

Fig.9

Table 2

Parameter and its interpretation"

参数	含义	参数	含义
$C i$	公交车辆编号	$x q d$	车辆停靠位置
$L i$	后车与前车的实际距离	$x z s$	站台起点位置
$L s$	后车与前车的安全距离	$x z e$	站台终点位置

Table 2

Fig.10

Fig.11

Table 3

Fig.12

Fig.13

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编号	符号	指标释义
1	N_P	停靠站停车位数量
2	N_L	停靠站线路数量
3	N_up	站点上车人数
4	N_down	站点下车人数
5	AG	站台乘客平均年龄
6	LO	站台乘客行李负重系数
7	FE	上车乘客中手机扫码支付的比例
8	B_cro	车内拥挤状态

Characteristics analysising and prediction of dwelling time of urban bus

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