Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition) ›› 2023, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (10): 2817-2825.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20211356

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Traffic accident risk assessment method for road network considering risk heterogeneity

Qian CAO(),Zhi-hui LI(),Peng-fei TAO,Yong-jian MA,Chen-xi YANG   

  1. College of Transportation，Jilin University，Changchun 130022，China
  • Received:2021-12-05 Online:2023-10-01 Published:2023-12-13
  • Contact: Zhi-hui LI E-mail:18844548258@163.com;lizhih@jlu.edu.cn

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Abstract:

At present， the risk assessment for road network is mainly based on accident data-driven methods. These methods ignore the risk factors differences on different types of roads， such as the ordinary road， tunnel， bridge， and so on. And this will induce the risk assessment for road network is inaccuracy. Aiming at this problem， a traffic accident risk assessment method for road network was presented considering risk heterogeneity. In this method， a road cascading segmentation strategy from coarse to fine was proposed according to the risk factors prior knowledge of different road types and the distribution characteristics of accidents density. This would achieve the accurate division of road segments with heterogeneous risk. Then an adaptive accident risk spatial distribution function was introduced. And a traffic risk assessment model for road segments with heterogeneous risk was established to realize the overall risk assessment of road network. Based on the international open accident database， the proposed method was compared with kernel density estimation with fixed bandwidth. The results show that the presented method has a better ability to discover traffic risk. And the assessment of road network risk is more consistent with actual situation by using the presented method.

Key words: traffic engineering, road network risk assessment, density peaks clustering, heterogeneous risk, traffic safety

CLC Number: 

  • U491.3

Fig.1

Coarse division diagram of road segments withheterogeneous risk"

Fig.2

Fine division diagram of road segments withheterogeneous risk"

Fig.3

Spatial distribution function of accident risk"

Fig.4

Risk normalization function（α=4）"

Fig.5

Study area and roads"

Fig.6

Traffic accidents on study roads in 2020"

Fig.7

Traffic accidents clustering results"

Fig.8

Traffic risk assessment results of road network （basic unit is 1 m）"

Fig.9

Traffic risk assessment results of road network （basic unit is 5 m）"

Fig.10

Traffic risk assessment results of road network （basic unit is 10 m）"

Fig.11

Traffic risk assessment results of road network by using F-KDE （basic unit is 10 m）"

Fig.12

Risk distribution curve of road section"

Table1

Statistical results of road traffic accident"

路 段方 法路段长度/km事故数/起增加率/%加权事故数/起增加率/%
风险值前10%本文1.352004.72289.1
F-KDE191209
风险值前20%本文2.72823.73095.1
F-KDE272294
风险值前30%本文4.053301.53552.3
F-KDE325347
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