Journal of Jilin University(Medicine Edition) ›› 2022, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (4): 979-987.doi: 10.13481/j.1671-587X.20220418

• Research in clinical medicine • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis on prognosis related factors of patients with cholangiocarcinoma after radical resection and establishment of survival prediction model

Yingjie NIU1,Yong ZHA1,Sijia LI2,Qing WANG2,Shicong TANG2(),Hongyang LI1()   

  1. 1.Department of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery,Cancer Hospital of Yunnan Province,Third Affiliated Hospital,Kunming Medical University,Kunming 650118,China
    2.Department of Breast Surgery,Cancer Hospital of Yunnan Province,Third Affiliated Hospital,Kunming Medical University,Kunming 650118,China
  • Received:2021-09-19 Online:2022-07-28 Published:2022-07-26
  • Contact: Shicong TANG,Hongyang LI E-mail:tang_shicong@126. com;1564356100@qq.com

Abstract: Objective

To explore the influencing factors of recurrence and survival of the patients with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) after radical resection, and to establish the nomogram to predict the postoperative survival time.

Methods

The clinical and pathological data of 89 patients who underwent cholangiocarcinoma resection in our hospital were retrospectively collected. The median time of disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) of the patients were 10 and 13 months, respectively. Kaplan Meier and Cox regression models were used to analyze the effects of clinical and pathological characteristics on DFS and OS. LASSO regression was performed by R software to evaluate the related influencing factors of recurrence of the patients after surgery. A nomogram was established to predict the OS of patients after operation, and the prediction efficiency was evaluated by the consistency index (C-index), calibration curve and area under receiver operaing characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).

Results

The postoperative univariate analysis showed that diabetes (χ2=5.204, P=0.023), CA19-9 (χ2=7.694, P=0.006), CA125 (χ2=6.908, P=0.009), CA242 (χ2=10.712, P=0.001), tumor size (χ2=4.310, P=0.038), lymph node metastasis (χ2=16.883, P<0.001) were the independent risk factors of DFS after operation in the CCA patients. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis results showed that CEA (χ2=5.188, P=0.023), CA19-9 (χ2=9.324, P=0.002), CA125 (χ2=9.568, P=0.002),CA242 (χ2=19.119, P<0.001), prealbumin (χ2=4.370, P=0.037), ALT (χ2=4.072, P=0.045),AST (χ2=6.401, P=0.011), ALP (χ2=4.682, P=0.045), lymph node metastasis (χ2=11.739,P<0.001),portal carcinoma (χ2=5.940, P=0.015), vascular invasion (χ2=4.892, P=0.027), postoperative adjuvant therapy (χ2=4.011, P=0.045) were the risk factors affecting postoperative survival of the CCA patients. The LASSO regression analysis and COX multivariate analysis showed that lymph node metastasis was an independent risk factor of postoperative recurrence of the patients(OR=3.067,95%CI=1.192-8.252,P=0.022), lymph node metastasis(HR:2.094,95%CI=1.074-4.083,P=0.030) and postoperative adjuvant therapy(HR=0.374,95%CI=0.190-0.736,P=0.004) were the independent factors of survial of the CCA patients. A nomogram was established to predict the OS of CCA patients, Tte C-index was 0.697, and the AUC of the 1-year, 2-year and 5-year survival rates were 0.72 (95%CI: 0.68-0.88),0.65 (95%CI: 0.63-0.81),and 0.84(95%CI: 0.77-0.91),respectively.

Conclusion

The prognosis of CCA patients is poor and the postoperative survival rate is low. Lymph node metastasis is a common independent risk factor for both recurrence and survival. Combined with postoperative adjuvant therapy, a nomogram is constructed, which has a good predictive efficiency in survival in the CCA patients after radical resection.

Key words: Bile duct neoplasms, LASSO regression, Nomogram, Survival analysis, Prognostic factors

CLC Number: 

  • R735.7