Abstract:

Objective To discuss the infection status and clinical outcomes in the patients with bullous pemphigoid （BP）， and to analyze the risk factors for infection in hospitalized BP patients， as well as to construct and evaluate the risk prediction model. Methods A total of 126 patients first diagnosed with BP were selected. According to the occurrence of infection， the patients were divided into infection group （52 cases） and non-infection group （74 cases）. The infection status and outcomes of the patients in two groups were recorded； statistical analysis was performed on the general data， laboratory examination results， FRAIL scale scores for frailty screening， NRS2002 scores， and skin lesion severity of the patients in two groups； multivariate Logistic regression model was used to identify the risk factors for infection in the patients； the goodness-of-fit test was used to evaluate the model； receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of the model for infection. Results Among the 126 hospitalized BP patients， 52 cases had infection， with an infection rate of 41.27%. The mortality rate of the patients in infection group was higher than that in non-infection group （P<0.05）， and the remission rate of the patients in non-infection group was higher than that in infection group （P<0.05）. The FRAIL scale score for frailty screening， NRS2002 score， serum albumin level， prealbumin level， number of hospitalization， skin lesion severity， and time of hospital stay of the patients in infection group were significantly higher than those in non-infection group （P<0.05）. The multivariate Logistic regression analysis results derived the regression equation： Logistic（P）=-7.63+0.922×skin lesion severity+2.565×FRAIL scale score for frailty screening+1.214×NRS2002 score. The area under the curve of the Logistic regression model was 0.916. Conclusion The FRAIL scale score for frailty screening， NRS2002 score， and skin lesion severity are the risk factors for infection in the hospitalized BP patients. The constructed infection risk prediction model based on these factors has good predictive value and may provide new ideas for the prevention and control of infection in the hospitalized BP patients.?

Key words: Bullous pemphigoid, FRAIL scale score for frailty screening, Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 score, Infection, Risk factor, Prediction model