基于时间序列的边坡位移实时预测方法

吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2012, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (增刊1): 193-197.

基于时间序列的边坡位移实时预测方法

刘寒冰, 李国恒, 谭国金, 孙晏一

吉林大学交通学院,长春 130022

收稿日期:2011-12-30 出版日期:2012-09-01 发布日期:2012-09-01
通讯作者: 谭国金(1981-),男,讲师,博士.研究方向:道桥结构动态优化理论及应用.E-mail:tgj@jlu.edu.cn E-mail:tgj@jlu.edu.cn
作者简介:刘寒冰(1957-),男,教授,博士生导师.研究方向:道桥结构动态优化理论及应用.E-mail:lhb@jlu.edu.cn
基金资助:
"863"国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2009AA11Z104).

Real-time prediction method of slop displacement based on time series analysis

LIU Han-bing, LI Guo-heng, TAN Guo-jin, SUN Yan-yi

College of Transportation, Jilin University, Chanchun 130022, China

Received:2011-12-30 Online:2012-09-01 Published:2012-09-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了随时掌握边坡的变形情况,准确分析并预测边坡位移的变化趋势,确保边坡稳定可靠,基于时间序列方法,并结合以往的边坡位移监测数据,建立了边坡变形趋势的预测模型。提出了一种基于时间序列的边坡位移实时预测方法。以长春市地铁西客站监测为例,验证了本文方法的可行性。研究结果可以为边坡的稳定性分析提供一种新思路。

关键词: 道路工程, 时间序列, 边坡变形, 位移监测, 实时预测

Abstract: In order to monitor the slope deformation at any time, accurately analyze and predict the trend of slop displacement deformation accurately, and ensure slope stability and reliability, a prediction model of the slope deformation trend was proposed based on time series methods and combined with the previous slope displacement monitoring data. Real-time prediction method of slop displacement based on time series was proposed. The feasibility of this method was verified after testing it on the metro west railway station in Changchun. The results can provide a new idea for slope stability analysis.

Key words: road engineering, time series, slop deformation, displacement monitoring, real-time prediction

中图分类号:

U416.1

刘寒冰, 李国恒, 谭国金, 孙晏一. 基于时间序列的边坡位移实时预测方法[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2012, 42(增刊1): 193-197.

LIU Han-bing, LI Guo-heng, TAN Guo-jin, SUN Yan-yi. Real-time prediction method of slop displacement based on time series analysis[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2012, 42(增刊1): 193-197.

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