Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition) ›› 2024, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (2): 485-493.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20220316

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Time⁃variant reliability analysis of bridge members based on Gaussian Copula⁃Bayesian dynamic models

Xue-ping FAN1,2(),Heng ZHOU2,Yue-fei LIU1,2   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Mechanics on Disaster and Environment in Western China of the Ministry of Education，Lanzhou University，Lanzhou 730030，China
    2.School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics，Lanzhou University，Lanzhou 730030，China
  • Received:2022-03-27 Online:2024-02-01 Published:2024-03-29

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Abstract:

Nonlinear dependence of multiple control monitoring point failure exists in bridge member， Considering the influence of this nonlinear dependence on bridge member reliability. In this paper， firstly， Bayesian dynamic model （BDMs） is introduced to build the dynamic prediction model of monitoring data. Further， Gaussian Copula-BDMs is given with the fusion of BDMs and Copula theory， which is used to solve the structural reliability. And the solved reliability is compared with that calculated without considering the dependence among bridge member control monitoring point failure. Finally， an example is given to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed models and approaches. The research results will provide the theoretical foundation for the reliability analysis of structural system.

Key words: structural engineering, dependence, Bayesian dynamic models, Gaussian Copula-BDMs, time-dependent reliability analysis

CLC Number: 

  • TU391

Fig.1

Prediction curve of monitored stresses"

Fig.2

BDMs prediction accuracy curve of monitored stresses for FBG01021， FBG01028 and FBG01029"

Fig.3

Bayesian factors"

Fig.4

Cumulative Bayesian factors of FBG01021， FBG01028 and FBG01029"

Fig.5

Linear correlation coefficients between performance functions"

Fig.6

PDF and contour plots of time-dependent Gaussian-Copula functions"

Fig.7

Reliability indices and failure probability"

Fig.8

Time-dependent failure probability of structural system"

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