老年驾驶员事故严重程度影响因素时间不稳定性分析

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20221574

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to explore the influence of temporal instability on crash injury severities， a random parameter approach with heterogeneity in means and variances was constructed to analyze the heterogeneity of elderly driver injury severities. The 2015 to 2017 traffic crash data in a state of the United States was used for the analysis. 19 influencing factors were selected based on the characteristics of elderly， vehicle， road， road environment， and built environment. The average marginal effect was used to reflect the effect of each factor on the crash injury severities. The log likelihood ratio was used to test the global and local temporal instability of the influencing factors of crash injury severities. The results show that there is significant temporal instability in the influencing factors of elderly driver injury severities. The influence of three factors on the injury severities， namely， escape after collision， rural area and dry road surface environment， changes positively and negatively with years. In the built environment characteristics， the influence of crash occurring in commercial district on the serious injury severities changes positively and negatively with years. There is temporal instability in the heterogeneity of influencing factors of elderly driver injury severities. The random parameters are related to years and the influencing factors of their mean and variance are significantly different in years.

Key words: traffic engineering, crash injury severity, random parameter Logit with heterogeneity in means and variances, elderly drivers, temporal instability

CLC Number:

U491.31

Yi-yong PAN,Jing-ting WU,Xuan-ye Miao. Temporal instability analysis of factors affecting injury severities of elderly drivers[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2024, 54(10): 2819-2826.

Figures/Tables 5

Table 1

Table 2

2015-2017 Model parameter estimates"

自变量		2015年		2016年		2017年
自变量		参数	z-值	参数	z-值	参数	z-值
截距［MI］		0.933	4.56	1.806	5.93	-1.231	-3.16
截距标准差［MI］		0.935	2.92	—	—	—	—
截距［SI］		—	—	—	—	-16.07	-2.59
截距标准差［SI］		—	—	—	—	9.190	2.42
驾驶员特性	驾驶员身体状况为正常［CI］	1.475	10.09	1.781	7.56	—	—
	驾驶员身体状况为正常［MI］	—	—	—	—	-0.965	-10.23
	驾驶员身体状况为生病［MI］	0.391	2.31	—	—	-0.965	-10.23
	驾驶员身体状况为生病［SI］	—	—	—	—	3.817	4.32
	驾驶员身体状况为疲劳［MI］	-0.933	-3.54	—	—	—	—
	驾驶员身体状况为其他［SI］	1.191	6.18	1.805	6.68	—	—
	驾驶员性别为男性［MI］	-0.234	-2.32	—	—	—	—
	驾驶员性别为男性［SI］	—	—	—	—	1.919	1.60
	驾驶员性别为女性［SI］	-0.669	-2.52	—	—	—	—
	碰撞后逃逸［CI］	2.135	5.30	—	—	—	—
	碰撞后逃逸［MI］	—	—	1.311	0.73	—	—
	碰撞后没有逃逸［MI］	—	—	—	—	1.296	3.65
	驾驶员未分心［SI］	-1.691	-8.72			-1.759	-2.93
车辆特性	车辆速度为［0，10］ km/h［CI］	2.144	2.55	1.080	3.17	—	—
	车辆速度为（10，20］ km/h［CI］	0.635	3.08	—	—	—	—
	车辆速度为（20，30］ km/h［CI］	—	—	0.562	2.91	—	—
	车辆速度为（20，30］ km/h［MI］	-0.245	-1.84	—	—	—	—
	车辆速度为［50，60］ km/h［MI］	—	—	—	—	0.266	2.42
	车辆类型为摩托车［CI］	—	—	-3.632	-6.74	—	—
	车辆类型为摩托车［MI］	—	—	—	—	3.513	11.63
	车辆类型为SUV［CI］	-2.293	0.33	—	—	-0.259	-2.40
	车辆类型为小汽车［CI］	0.399	4.14	—	—	—	—
	安全气囊未蹦出［CI］	1.448	11.11	—	—	—	—
	安全气囊未蹦出［MI］	—	—	-1.593	-8.87	-1.281	-13.50
道路特性	下坡［CI］	—	—	-0.655	-2.19	—	—
	山底/山顶［CI］	—	—	—	—	1.293	2.07
	T/Y［CI］	—	—	—	—	-0.381	-1.99
	单车道［CI］	—	—	3.367	1.64	—	—
	信号控制［CI］	0.599	11.12	—	—	—	—
	2条车道［MI］	—	—	0.476	3.53	—	—
	3条车道［MI］	-0.869	-2.58	—	—	—	—
	直线［CI］	0.605	5.77	—	—	—	—
	直线［MI］	—	—	—	—	-0.539	-4.99
环境特性	下雨［CI］	—	—	0.698	3.42	—	—
	天晴［CI］	-0.260	10.10	—	—	—	—
	发生在工作区［CI］	—	—	1.887	6.19	—	—
	发生在工作区标准差［CI］	—	—	5.290	1.54	—	—
	发生在农村［CI］	0.737	0.36	—	—	-0.374	-3.61
	发生在农村［MI］	—	—	0.452	2.99	—	—
	干燥［CI］	—	—	—	—	-0.177	-1.56
	干燥［SI］	—	—	-1.574	-5.16	—	—
	黑暗有灯光［CI］	—	—	0.446	2.38	0.364	2.45
	黑暗有灯光［SI］	-1.008	-2.54	—	—	—	—
	黎明/黄昏［MI］	-0.495	-2.16	—	—	—	—
	天亮［MI］	0.299	2.90	—	—	—	—
建成环境特性	300 m缓冲区内存在公园［CI］	—	—	-1.735	-1.86	—	—
	300 m缓冲区内存在银行［MI］	1.203	1.57	—	—	—	—
	事故发生在商业区［SI］	—	—	-1.175	-1.57	2.083	1.82
均值异质性	截距：农村［MI］	0.493	6.18	—	—	—	—
	事故发生在工作区：碰撞后逃逸［CI］	—	—	3.630	1.82	—	—
	截距：直线［SI］	—	—	—	—	-3.632	-21.93
方差异质性	截距：速度为［0，10］［MI］	1.070	1.070	—	—	—	—
	事故发生在工作区：单车道［CI］	—	—	1.117	2.29	—	—
	截距：摩托车［SI］	—	—	—	—	0.462	2.84
模型估计	样本数量	4 590		3 590		4 299
	仅含常数的对数似然	-5 438.130		-3 944.01		-4 722.934
	模型收敛的对数似然	-2 547.387		-1 643.57		-1 988.858
	McFadden $ρ 2$	0.532		0.583		0.579

Table 2

Table 3

Total log-likelihood ratio test"

$(t i, t i + 1)$	$L L (β t i t i + 1)$	$L L (β t i)$	$L L (β t i + 1)$	$χ T 2$ 值	自由度	置信水平
（2015，2016）	-4 338.653	-2 547.020	-1 643.547	296.172	19	［>99.99%］
（2016，2017）	-3 697.333	-1 643.547	-1 988.858	129.856	12	［>99.99%］

Table 3

Table 4

Local log-likelihood ratio test"

$(t i, t j)$	$χ L 2$ 值	自由度	置信水平
（2015，2016）	311.295	21	［>99.99%］
（2015，2017）	326.324	21	［>99.99%］
（2016，2015）	137.132	27	［>99.99%］
（2016，2017）	30.028	21	［>95.00%］
（2017，2015）	83.868	27	［>99.99%］
（2017，2016）	83.730	21	［>95.00%］

Table 4

Table 5

Marginal effect value of each influencing factor from 2015 to 2017"

变量		仅财产损失事故			轻伤事故			重伤事故
变量		2015	2016	2017	2015	2016	2017	2015	2016	2017
驾驶员特性	驾驶员身体状况为正常	0.123 2	0.115 8	0.079 9	-0.119 7	-0.107 1	-0.082 9	-0.010 8	-0.012 5	0.000 9
	驾驶员身体状况为生病	-0.003 8	—	-0.001 4	0.011 2	—	-0.002 2	-0.000 8	—	0.011 7
	驾驶员身体状况为疲劳	0.003 3	—	—	-0.004 8	—	—	0.001 0	—	—
	驾驶员身体状况为其他	-0.004 6	-0.006 4	—	-0.010 9	-0.017 0	—	0.094 6	0.106 7	—
	驾驶员性别为男性	0.015 8	—	-0.003 4	-0.025 4	—	-0.002 4	0.011 6	—	0.012 1
	驾驶员性别为女性	0.001 3	—	—	0.001 8	—	—	-0.006 8	—	—
	碰撞后逃逸	0.004 0	-0.001 2	—	-0.001 2	0.000 9	—	-0.001 7	-0.000 1	—
	碰撞后没有逃逸	—	—	-0.146 5	—	—	0.211 9	—	—	-0.003 1
	驾驶员未分心	0.007 6	—	0.008 3	0.018 3	—	0.005 8	-0.029 5	—	-0.011 2
车辆特性	车辆速度［0，10］ km/h	0.008 6	0.003 9	—	-0.003 8	-0.002 1	—	-0.002 1	-0.001 3	—
	车辆速度（10，20］ km/h	0.004 4	—	—	-0.002 8	—	—	-0.000 6	—	—
	车辆速度（20，30］ km/h	0.003 3	0.006 3	—	-0.005 1	-0.007 8	—	0.002 2	-0.003 5	—
	车辆速度［50，60］ km/h	—	—	-0.005 7	—	—	0.0095	—	—	0.001 9
	车辆类型为摩托车	—	-0.003 1	-0.002 4	—	0.017 7	-0.1019	—	0.010 0	-0.001 7
	车辆类型为SUV	-0.008 8	—	-0.006 0	0.061 4	—	0.0102	0.013 7	—	0.000 3
	车辆类型为小汽车	0.020 3	—	—	-0.019 2	—	—	-0.006 2	—	—
	安全气囊未蹦出	0.120 1	0.089 1	0.110 3	-0.088 1	-0.104 7	-0.1019	-0.035 6	-0.044 8	0.001 9
道路特性	下坡	—	-0.002 7	—	—	0.004 6	—	—	0.001 9	—
	山底/山顶	—	—	0.000 8	—	—	-0.000 5	—	—	0.000 0
	T/Y	—	—	-0.002 5	—	—	0.004 1	—	—	0.000 1
	单车道	—	0.012 7	—	—	-0.006 0	—	—	-0.003 9	—
	信号控制	0.002 5	—	—	-0.003 6	—	—	-0.000 8	—	—
	2条车道	—	-0.019 7	—	—	0.038 1	—	—	-0.008 5	—
	3条车道	0.002 1	—	—	-0.001 9	—	—	0.001 6	—	—
	直线	0.056 5	—	0.051 8	-0.061 7	—	-0.0651	-0.020 7	—	0.000 5
环境特性	下雨	—	0.006 3	—	—	-0.004 2	—	—	-0.007 3	—
	天晴	-0.006 6	—	—	0.008 8	—	—	0.003 3	—	—
	发生在工作区	—	0.080 2	—	—	-0.164 3	—	—	-0.060 1	—
	发生在农村	0.006 6	-0.026 9	-0.0322	-0.001 2	0.050 7	0.0478	-0.002 7	-0.011 0	0.001 3
	干燥	—	0.010 7	-0.0170	—	0.020 0	0.2440	—	-0.064 9	0.000 8
	黑暗有灯光	0.000 8	0.004 8	0.0046	0.001 0	-0.005 8	-0.0054	-0.004 1	-0.002 6	-0.000 3
	黄昏/黎明	0.002 5	—	—	-0.002 8	—	—	0.002 8	—	—
	白天	-0.020 5	—	—	0.032 1	—	—	-0.009 1	—	—
建成环境	300 m缓冲区内存在公园	—	-0.000 7	—	—	0.001 4	—	—	0.000 5	—
	300 m缓冲区内存在银行	-0.000 6	—	—	0.001 0	—	—	-0.000 1	—	—
	事故发生在商业区	—	0.000 4	-0.0006	—	0.000 5	-0.0003	—	-0.000 7	0.002 3

Table 5

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事故类型	2015年	2016年	2017年
仅财产损失	3 035（72.8%）	2 912（81.2%）	3 434（79.8%）
轻伤	1 042（25.0%）	587（16.4%）	770（17.9%）
重伤	88（2.2%）	86（2.4%）	98（2.3%）

Temporal instability analysis of factors affecting injury severities of elderly drivers

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