不完全信息下高铁晚点与乘客选择行为博弈模型

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20230094

Abstract

Abstract:

The specific influencing factors of the arrival status of high-speed trains on railway passengers' choice behavior were studied. First， an evolutionary game model of the arrival status of high-speed trains and railway passengers' choice behavior was constructed. Then， the evolutionary behaviors of both players in the game were analyzed， and the evolutionary equilibrium strategies of the replicator dynamic system were obtained. Finally， simulation verification was carried out， and the results indicated that there are two evolutionary stable states. When the delay time of the high-speed train is within 30 minutes， the train tends to adopt a punctual arrival strategy， and passengers tend to choose to travel. When the delay time exceeds 30 minutes， the train tends to adopt a punctual arrival strategy， while passengers tend to choose to refund their tickets. The game parameters can be adjusted to direct the evolutionary direction of both players， which can effectively improve the proportion of railway passengers choosing to travel when the high-speed train is delayed.

Key words: transportation, high-speed railway delay, partial information, evolutionary gam

CLC Number:

U293

Ai-guo LEI,Qi-zhou HU,Xiao-yu WU,Si-yuan QU. Game model of high⁃speed railway delay and passenger choice behavior under incomplete information[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2024, 54(12): 3496-3504.

Figures/Tables 10

Table 1

Variables"

参数	含义
$W$	列车准时到达，铁路乘客乘车，铁路管理部门收益
$M$	列车准时到达，铁路乘客退票，铁路管理部门收益
$T$	列车准时到达，铁路乘客选择乘车收益
$B$	列车晚点到达，铁路管理部门口碑损失
$V$	列车晚点到达，铁路乘客乘车损失
$G$	列车晚点到达，铁路乘客改签损失
$R$	列车晚点到达，铁路乘客退票损失

Table 1

Table 2

Payment matrix of both sides of the game"

博弈双方策略		铁路管理部门
博弈双方策略		$准时 (x)$	$晚点 (1 - x)$
铁路乘客	$乘车 (y 1)$	$(T, W)$	$(T - V, W - B)$
	$改签 (y 2)$	$(0, W)$	$(- G, - B)$
	$退票 (y 3)$	$(- M, M - W)$	$(- R, - B)$

Table 2

Table 3

Eigenvalues of Jacobian matrix at equilibrium point"

均衡点	特征值
（0，0，0）	$M + B - W$ ， $R + T - V$ ， $R - G$
（0，1，0）	$B$ ， $V - T - R$ ， $R - T + V - G$
（0，0，1）	$W + B$ ， $G + T - V$ ， $G - R$
（1，0，0）	$W - M - B$ ， $M + T$ ， $M$
（1，1，0）	$- B$ ， $- M - T$ ， $R + M$
（1，0，1）	$- W - B$ ， $T$ ， $- M$
$G - R G - R + M, 0, W - B - M 2 W - M$	0， $T + V R - V M + G M G - R + M$ ，0

Table 3

Table 4

Local stability test of equilibrium point"

均衡点	$t r (J)$	$d e t (J)$	稳定性
（0，0，0）	+	+	不稳定点
（0，1，0）	+	+	不稳定点
（0，0，1）	+	+	不稳定点
（1，0，0）	+	+	不稳定点
（1，1，0）	-	+	$E S S$
（1，0，1）	-	+	鞍点
$G - R G - R + M, 0, W - B - M 2 W - M$	+	+	不稳定点

Table 4

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

Fig.6

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Game model of high⁃speed railway delay and passenger choice behavior under incomplete information

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