内涝影响下路网畅通可靠度评估及关键路段识别

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20230772

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to assess the impact of flooding on urban traffic operation and quantify the degree of failure of defective road sections in the city under the influence of flooding， this paper takes into account the decline in the capacity of road sections under the condition of flooding and the change process of traffic supply and demand in the road network， and quantitatively characterizes the degree of failure of road sections by taking road section smoothness and reliability as an indicator； we construct a Bayesian network model for assessing the degree of smoothness and reliability of the road network， and analyse the influence relationship between road sections and road networks； finally， identify the key road sections by combining the smoothness and reliability of road sections and their influence on road networks. The road network and flooding data of a certain area in Shenzhen are selected for example analysis， and the sensitivity analysis of the model verifies the feasibility of the model. The results of the study provide new ideas for the identification of critical road sections in urban road networks under flooding conditions.

Key words: transportation planning and management, flooding, unblocked reliability, identification of critical sections, Bayesian network

CLC Number:

U491

Wen-jing WU,Chun-chun DENG,Hong-fei JIA,Shu-hang SUN. Evaluation of road network unblocked reliability and identification of critical sections under influence of flooding[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2025, 55(4): 1250-1257.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

Table 1

Fig.6

Table 2

Table 3

Unblocked reliability of road section units"

路段标号	$μ C$	$μ k C$	$σ C$	$σ k C$	$μ V$	$σ V$	$β$	$P$
1	10 125	7 594	1 012	759	8 290	829	-0.619 36	0.267 8
2	8 117	6 088	812	609	3 370	337	3.905 922	1
3	8 064	6 048	403	302	6 671	667	-0.771 8	0.220 1
4	5 564	4 173	278	209	1 356	90	12.389 64	1
5	6 336	4 752	317	238	4 372	291	1.011 66	0.844 1
6	8 064	6 048	403	302	5 865	587	0.246 514	0.597 4
7	9 216	6 912	922	691	5 136	514	2.062 057	0.980 4
8	8 117	6 088	812	609	628	63	8.920 42	1
9	8 117	6 088	812	609	6 710	671	-0.686 41	0.246 2
10	9 216	6 912	922	691	8 644	864	-1.565 04	0.058 8
11	8 117	6 088	812	609	5 628	563	0.554 426	0.710 4

Table 3

Table 4

Quantitative results of key measurement indicators for road network"

路段标号	路段畅通可靠度 $P$	设定路段畅通条件下的路网畅通可靠度 $P'$	路网畅通可靠度相对变化率 $Δ n$ /%	路段关键度 $K n$
1	0.267 8	0.194 159 900	97.447 934	0.498 820 266
2	1	0.052 986 132	0.000 000	0
3	0.220 1	0.230 977 800	94.802 235	0.501 862 011
4	1	0.052 986 132	0.000 000	0
5	0.844 1	0.062 080 808	92.933 608	0.342 606 128
6	0.597 4	0.053 653 387	1.868 620	0.104 921 906
7	0.980 4	0.052 986 132	0.000 000	0.004 810 052
8	1	0.052 986 132	0.000 000	0
9	0.246 2	0.062 883 297	6.100 712	0.204 969 784
10	0.058 8	0.104 728 620	6.100 712	0.250 959 771
11	0.710 4	0.054 303 898	6.100 711	0.091 050 081

Table 4

Fig.7

Fig.8

References 10

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OD对	单向交通量/（pcu·h^-1）	最短路
1-9	2 500	（1，3，4，5，8），（2，9，10，11），（1，3，6，10，11），（1，3，4，7，11）
2-3	2 500	（1，2），（3，6，9）
3-6	2 500	（9，10，11，8），（9，10，7，5），（9，6，4，5），（2，1，3，4，5）

Evaluation of road network unblocked reliability and identification of critical sections under influence of flooding

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