考虑个体风险偏好差异的高速公路出行选择模型

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb20200409

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper aims to analyze the travel characteristics of highway on holidays and establish the travel behavior decision-making model. First of all， a total of 500 valid questionnaires were collected from the survey and analysis of highway travel behavior characteristics on holidays. Secondly， considering the difference of individual risk preference， a freeway travel time selection model based on nested logit -cumulative prospect theory model is proposed to further understand highway travel behavior decision-making in holidays. Finally， a case study is carried out on the holiday Expressway in Guangdong Province， and the accuracy of the model is tested. The results show that the overall prediction error of the proposed model is 14.14%， and prediction error of the nested logit model is about 22.22%. Compared with other models， the proposed model can improve the accuracy of prediction results.

Key words: highway, nested Logit model, cumulative prospect theory, risk preference coefficient

CLC Number:

U491

Ying-ying MA,Si-yuan LU,Xiao-ming ZHANG,Wen-shu WEI. Model of highway travel selection considering individual risk preference difference[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2021, 51(5): 1673-1683.

Figures/Tables 12

Table 1

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Table 2

Fig.4

Table 3

Parameter φ value list"

调查规模/人	$φ$ 取值	调查规模/人	$φ$ 取值
>1000	0.9~1.0	300~500	0.3~0.5
800~1000	0.7~0.9	<300	0.1~0.3
500~800	0.5~0.7

Table 3

Table 4

Variable definition and value"

因素	变量		取值	变量名
个人及家庭经济属性	性别		男生取1，否则取2	$x g e n d$
	年龄		1：<25岁；2：25~35岁；3：>35岁	$x a g e$
	月收入		1：<5 000元；2：5 000~10 000元；3：>10 000元	$x i n c o m$
	职业状态	职业状态1	固定工作取1，否则取2	$x j o b 1$
		职业状态2	学生取1，否则取2	$x j o b 2$
		职业状态3	其他工作取1，否则取2	$x j o b 3$
	教育水平	教育水平1	高中及以下取1，否则取2	$x e d u 1$
		教育水平2	大学生、专科取1，否则取2	$x e d u 2$
		教育水平3	研究生及以上取1，否则取2	$x e d u 3$
	驾龄		1：<2年；2：2~4年；3：>4年	$x d a g e$
	小汽车拥有量		1：0辆；2：1辆；3：2辆及以上	$x c n u m$
出行特征	出行目的	出行目的1	哑变量，旅游休闲取1，否则取2	$x p u r 1$
		出行目的2	哑变量，探亲访友取1，否则取2	$x p u r 2$
		出行目的3	哑变量，其他取1，否则取2	$x p u r 3$
	陪同人数		1：无；2：1人；3：2人；4：2人以上	$x c o m p$
	出行耗时		1：<1小时；2：1~2小时；3：2~4小时；4：>4小时	$x t i m e$
	乘坐车型		1：小型客车；2：中巴；3：大巴	$x v e h i$
	出发时段		1：6∶00~9∶00；2：9∶00~12∶00；…；7：00∶00~06∶00	$x d e p a$
	出行方案		1：（时段1，车型1）；…；21：（时段7，车型3）	$x d e c i$
	舒适性		1：差；2：中；3：好	$x c o m f$
	便利性		1：差；2：中；3：好	$x c o m v$

Table 4

Table 5

Risk preference coefficient of different travel schemes with different income levels"

出行方案 $(k)$	输入水平			出行方案 $(k)$	输入水平
出行方案 $(k)$	Y=1	Y=2	Y=3	出行方案 $(k)$	Y=1	Y=2	Y=3
1	0.93	0.91	0.95	12	0.98	0.99	0.99
2	0.99	0.99	1.00	13	0.96	0.97	0.98
3	0.98	0.98	0.98	14	0.98	0.99	0.99
4	0.84	0.94	0.96	15	0.99	0.99	0.98
5	0.98	0.99	0.99	16	0.99	0.99	0.99
6	0.96	0.95	0.95	17	0.99	0.98	0.96
7	0.93	0.94	0.96	18	0.98	0.99	0.99
8	0.98	0.97	0.97	19	0.99	0.98	0.97
9	0.98	0.99	0.99	20	0.99	0.99	0.99
10	0.95	0.88	0.88	21	0.98	0.99	0.99
11	0.98	0.99	1.00	-	-	-	-

Table 5

Table 6

Calculation results of n-cumulative foreground value of travelers"

$R$	组合效用			价值函数			累积权重			$C P V$
1	$V 1$	$V 2$	$V 3$	$v (Δ V 1)$	$v (Δ V 2)$	$v (Δ V 3)$	$π 1$	$π 2$	$π 3$	$C P V 1$
1	0.31	-4.56	-0.44	0.34	-10.24	-1.01	0.20	0.001	0.12	-0.061
2	$V 4$	$V 5$	$V 6$	$v (Δ V 4)$	$v (Δ V 5)$	$v (Δ V 6)$	$π 4$	$π 5$	$π 6$	$C P V 2$
2	0.41	-0.88	-0.76	0.43	-1.97	-1.74	0.23	0.05	0.11	-0.196
3	$V 7$	$V 8$	$V 9$	$v (Δ V 7)$	$v (Δ V 8)$	$v (Δ V 9)$	$π 7$	$π 8$	$π 9$	$C P V 3$
3	-0.33	-0.878	-2.41	-0.75	-1.98	-5.38	0.11	0.04	0.01	-0.195
4	$V 10$	$V 11$	$V 12$	$v (Δ V 10)$	$v (Δ V 11)$	$v (Δ V 12)$	$π 10$	$π 11$	$π 12$	$C P V 4$
4	0.21	-2.98	-1.63	0.26	-6.66	-3.65	0.28	0.01	0.09	-0.358
5	$V 13$	$V 14$	$V 15$	$v (Δ V 13)$	$v (Δ V 14)$	$v (Δ V 15)$	$π 13$	$π 14$	$π 15$	$C P V 5$
5	0.24	-3.14	-1.93	0.25	-7.06	-4.34	0.19	0.01	0.04	-0.215
6	$V 16$	$V 17$	$V 18$	$v (Δ V 16)$	$v (Δ V 17)$	$v (Δ V 18)$	$π 16$	$π 17$	$π 18$	$C P V 6$
6	0.21	-0.75	-30.83	0.22	-4.56	-61.59	0.14	0.07	-0.1	3.491
7	$V 19$	$V 20$	$V 21$	$v (Δ V 19)$	$v (Δ V 20)$	$v (Δ V 21)$	$π 19$	$π 20$	$π 21$	$C P V 7$
7	0.05	-42.86	0.35	0.05	-95.94	0.35	0.06	0.00	0.04	-0.061
实际决策			出发时段：6=17∶00~21∶00；乘坐车型：1=小型客车

Table 6

Table 7

Od value of main influencing factors in different departure periods"

出发时段	$x a g e$	$x i n c o m e$	$x j o b 3$	$x e d u 1$	$x d a g e$	$x c n u m$	$x t i m e$
$R = 1$	0.684	1.003	2.757	0.314	0.824	0.497	0.436
$R = 2$	0.556	0.776	1.694	0.526	1.143	0.505	0.501
$R = 3$	0.583	0.897	1.680	1.134	1.037	0.424	0.643
$R = 4$	0.884	1.220	0.725	0.225	0.902	0.415	0.512
$R = 5$	0.693	0.698	0.971	0.386	0.680	0.656	0.519
$R = 6$	0.402	0.886	1.029	0.198	0.793	0.600	0.534
$R = 7$	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Table 7

Table 8

Comparison of prediction results only based on nested Logit model and based on nested Logit cumulative prospect theory model %"

出发时段	实际选择比例	巢式Logit模型		巢式Logit-累积前景理论
出发时段	实际选择比例	预测结果	误差	预测结果	误差
总体误差	—	22.22		14.14
$R = 1$	6.06	6.06	0.00	7.07	1.01
$R = 2$	37.37	43.43	6.06	31.31	6.06
$R = 3$	15.15	12.12	3.03	15.15	0.00
$R = 4$	25.25	30.30	5.05	26.26	1.01
$R = 5$	4.04	2.02	2.02	3.03	1.01
$R = 6$	6.06	2.02	4.04	11.11	5.05
$R = 7$	6.06	4.04	2.02	6.06	0.00

Table 8

References 21

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因素	选项	频率/%	因素	选项	频率/%
年龄	<25岁	36.00	月收入	<5 000元	34.80
	25~35岁	39.00		5 000~10 000元	30.80
	>35岁	25.00		>10 000元	24.50
职业状态	固定工作	53.50	教育水平	高中及以下	20.30
	学生	32.00		大学生/专科	45.50
	其他	14.50		研究生及以上	34.30
驾龄	≤2年	53.00	小汽车拥有	0辆	40.80
	2~4年	25.80		1辆	43.30
	>4年	21.30		>2辆	16.00

车型	额载人数
一类客车	7座以下（含7座）
二类客车	8~19座（含19座）
三类客车	20~39座（含39座）
四类客车	40座以上（含40座）

Model of highway travel selection considering individual risk preference difference

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