Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition) ›› 2023, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (8): 2332-2338.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20220334

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Multi⁃process Bayesian dynamic combinatorial prediction of time⁃variant reliability for bridges

Xue-ping FAN1,2(),Heng ZHOU2,Yue-fei LIU1,2()   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Mechanics on Disaster and Environment in Western China of Ministry of Education,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730013
    2.School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730013,China
  • Received:2022-03-29 Online:2023-08-01 Published:2023-08-21
  • Contact: Yue-fei LIU E-mail:fxp_2004@163.com;yfliu@lzu.edu.cn

Abstract:

Based on the health monitoring information of the in-service bridge, it is very important to reasonably analyse the structural reliability for the safety and serviceability assessment. In this paper, the time series analysis method, the moving average method and the cubical smoothing algorithm with five-point approximation are used to reduce the noise of monitoring information (extreme stress signal). Considering that some time series is not enough to predict with a single dynamic linear model, these time series need to be predicted by a combination of multiple dynamic linear models. This study introduces multi-process model and establishes a multi-process Bayesian dynamic linear model to predict and analyse the extreme stresses; Further, the time-dependent reliability of bridge members is predicted by combining multi-process Bayesian dynamic linear model (BDLM) and first-order second moment (FOSM) reliability method. The research results of this paper will provide the theoretical basis for structural reliability prediction.

Key words: structural engineering, cubical smoothing algorithm with five-point approximation, multi-process dynamic linear model, Bayesian prediction, reliability prediction

CLC Number: 

  • TU391
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