数控机床可靠性建模研究现状及发展动态分析

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb20211173

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

数控机床是装备制造业的工作母机，是国家综合国力的象征，其可靠性已成为制约行业发展的瓶颈。数控机床可靠性建模是可靠性工程的基础，主要对数控机床可靠性建模方法和技术的研究进展进行综合评述。可靠性建模方法主要分为基于故障时间数据的可靠性建模方法、基于多源层次信息集的可靠性建模方法、基于性能退化数据的可靠性建模方法、基于动态特性参数的工艺可靠性建模方法四种，分析了各类可靠性建模方法的研究历程和技术进展。在数控机床可靠性建模方法取得明显进展的基础上，指出现有可靠性建模方法存在的不足，然后对数控机床可靠性建模方法研究的动态和热点进行论述。最后，从可靠性建模方法的发展规律、技术应用以及行业需求的角度对数控机床可靠性建模方法和技术的发展趋势进行展望。

关键词: 数控机床, 可靠性, 可靠性建模

Abstract:

CNC machine tools play an important role in the equipment manufacturing industry， and their reliability level has become the bottleneck restricting the development of the industry. Reliability modeling of NC machine tools is the basis of reliability engineering. A comprehensive review on the state of the reliability modeling technology research is given. Reliability models are mainly divided into four categories： reliability modeling method based on fault time data， reliability modeling method based on multi-source hierarchical information set， reliability modeling method based on performance degradation data and process reliability modeling method based on dynamic characteristic parameters. The research process and technical progress of various modeling methods are analyzed. On the basis of affirming the obvious progress made in the reliability modeling method and technology of CNC machine tools， this paper analyzes and points out the existing problems and shortcomings of the research work， and discusses the trends and hotspots of the reliability modeling research of CNC machine tools. Finally， the development trend of reliability modeling methods and technology of CNC machine tools is prospected from the perspective of reliability modeling development law、engineering application and industry demand.

Key words: CNC machine tools, reliability, reliability modeling

中图分类号:

TH164

陈传海,王成功,杨兆军,刘志峰,田海龙. 数控机床可靠性建模研究现状及发展动态分析[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2022, 52(2): 253-266.

Chuan-hai CHEN,Cheng-gong WANG,Zhao-jun YANG,Zhi-feng LIU,Hai-long TIAN. Research status and development trend analysis of reliability modeling of CNC machine tools[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2022, 52(2): 253-266.

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主要步骤	主要方法	意义
故障数据预处理	故障总时间法、Johnson法等	计算随机截尾试验数据的故障发生时间和故障间隔时间，并对故障时间数据进行排序
分布检验	图示法、V检验、J检验、Laplace 检验、卡方检验、KS检验等	用来判断分布类型
分布类型	威布尔分布、指数分布、对数正态分布、伽玛分布等	数控机床及其零部件的故障数据在宏观上大都服从威布尔分布函数
参数估计	矩估计、最大似然估计、EM算法	求解模型的参数

方法	优点	缺点
Bayes方法	有效地利用历史数据信息和待评估机床的现场信息	先验信息主观性和随意性
Bootstrap-Bayes方法	较常规Bayes法误差较小、可扩充样本量	在扩充样本量方面依赖子样本的情况，不利于参数估计的稳健性
回归折算方法	将相似产品的故障数据折算到待评估产品上，扩充了数据量	处理非线性数据时存在误差

模型	优点	缺点	意义
Wiener过程	退化增量可近似服从正态分布，且在不相交的时间间隔内是互相独立的。	退化路径不具有单调性，对退化过程是严格单调递增或递减的产品不再适用。	可以很好地描述机床及其子系统的性能退化过程。
Gamma过程	具有随机过程单调、平稳、独立增量等退化建模所需的特性。	故障率函数与可靠度函数用常规的方法很难求解。	描述单调变化的退化过程，弥补了Wiener模型的缺点。
Markov过程	改进的隐Markov模型可以表达状态间变化关系。	需要定义系统状态。	弥补了Gamma模型的缺点。

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