关键词: 交通运输系统工程, 协整分析, 误差修正模型, 双对数线性模型, 货运需求, 国民经济

Abstract:

A double-logarithmic linear model was built for the road freight transport demand represented by the freight turnover volume based on selecting the main influencing factors of the freight demand according to the principle of overallness, and the co-integration test of the model was done by the Johansen method. The test results show that there are at least 5 co-integration relationships, namely the long-term equilibrium relationships among the 6 time array including the DLTKM, the DLCONS, the DLGDP, the LP, the LRK, and the LTT. An error correct model with an error correction term was built and its structural test was done by the recursive regression method. The pulse responsible analysis was done for the time arrays by the pulse effect function. The investigation show that the double-logarithmic linear model reflects the long-term elasticity between the freight demand and the national economy, and the error correct model reflects their dynamic process of adjustment from the short-term fluctuation to the long-term balance.

Key words: engineering of communication and transportation system, co-integration analysis, error correct model,  , doublelogarithmic linear model, freight transport demand, national economy