基于分层贝叶斯网络的车辆发动机系统电磁脉冲敏感度评估

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb20170597

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 提出一种基于分层贝叶斯网络(HBN)的车辆发动机系统电磁脉冲(EMP)敏感度评估方法,从概率角度考虑电磁干扰源位置、极化角度、部件敏感度等参量的随机性,估计发动机系统在强电磁脉冲作用下的失效概率。该方法利用事件树分析(ETA)对电磁脉冲传播过程建模,确定系统周围电磁环境的风险概率,运用电磁拓扑(EMT)分析发动机系统电磁耦合途径。考虑同层单元失效的相关性,以分层贝叶斯网络为框架融合事件树和电磁拓扑理论建立发动机系统电磁脉冲敏感度评估模型,并推导了部件级至系统级的失效概率计算公式。最后以高空核电磁脉冲环境为例,说明了某型号发动机电磁脉冲敏感度评估模型的参数获取方法和模型计算过程,并以超宽带高功率微波为例,进一步说明了本文评估模型的适用性。

关键词: 通信技术, 系统评估与可行性分析, 敏感度评估, 分层贝叶斯网络, 发动机系统, 电磁脉冲, 电磁拓扑

Abstract: An assessment method of the Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) sensitivity of vehicle engine system is proposed based on Hierarchical Bayesian Networks (HBN). Considering the randomness of the parameters such as the position of the electromagnetic interference source, the polarization angle, component sensitivity and so on, the proposed method can estimate the failure probability of the engine system under strong EMP. The EMP propagation model is established by Event Tree Analysis (ETA), and the risk probability of the electromagnetic environment is determined. The coupled path of the engine of the engine system is analyzed using the Electromagnetic Topological (EMT). By correlation of invalidation of the same layer cells, as well as HBN integrating ETA and EMT, the assessment model of engine system for EMP sensitivity is established, and the failure probability formula from the component level to system level is derived. A case study for the pulse susceptibility assessment of the vehicle engine against high-latitude EMP illustrates the model parameter acquisition method and calculation process. In addition, vulnerability of vehicle engine against Ultra Wide Band (UWB) high power microwave is also presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model.

Key words: communication technology, systematic evaluation and feasibility analysis, susceptibility assessment, hierarchical Bayesian networks(HBN), engine system, electromagnetic pulse, electromagnetic topology

中图分类号:

TN945

孙晓颖, 扈泽正, 杨锦鹏. 基于分层贝叶斯网络的车辆发动机系统电磁脉冲敏感度评估[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(4): 1254-1264.

SUN Xiao-ying, HU Ze-zheng, YANG Jin-peng. Assessment method of electromagnetic pulse sensitivity of vehicle engine system based on hierarchical Bayesian networks[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(4): 1254-1264.

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