Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition) ›› 2022, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (4): 865-873.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb20210954

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New risk analysis method based on Bayesian network for hanging basker system of multi-tower cable-stayed bridge

Li-feng WANG(),Zi-wang XIAO,Sai-sai YU   

  1. School of Civil Engineering，Northeast Forestry University，Harbin 150040，China
  • Received:2021-09-23 Online:2022-04-01 Published:2022-04-20

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Abstract:

In order to better improve the safety level of hanging basket system of cantilever-construction and clarify the risk factors contained in the construction process of hanging basket system and reasonably avoid risks， in this paper， a new Bayesian network-based dynamic risk analysis method for hanging basket system of suspended casting multi-tower cable-stayed bridge is proposed. Also， taking the PAIRA bridge in Bangladesh as an example， the relationship between risk probability and risk intensity matrix of hanging basket system is discussed， the criterion of risk rating is clarified. The prediction results can provide a new idea and reference for the risk decision and the selection of countermeasures of hanging basket system in cantilever-construction bridge.

Key words: bridge engineering, multi-tower cable-stayed bridge, dynamic risk analysis, traveller system, Bayesian networks, safety capability evaluation

CLC Number: 

  • TU997

Fig.1

Structural failure risk analysis flow chart based on Bayesian network"

Fig.2

Hazard identification of traveller structure on site"

Fig.3

Structural hazards"

Fig.4

Protective hazards"

Fig.5

Behavioral hazards"

Table 1

Probability scale"

事故概率描述对应的可能性概率等级概率范围
极少的基本不可能发生I0<P≤10%
较少的不太可能发生II10%<P≤30%
有时的可能发生III30%<P≤90%
经常的很可能发生IV90%<P≤100%

Table 2

Loss scale"

严重程

度描述

事故损失描述损失程度严重度评分
轻微影响较小，注意前期预防A0<P≤29
中等一定程度的安全事故及经济损失，需认真对待，密切关注，建立风险预测与控制机制B30≤P<79
严重较严重的安全事故及经济损失，采取有效的组织管理措施、技术措施，降低危害C80≤P<95
灾难性产生重大的安全事故及经济损失，应取消既定方案D95≤P≤100

Table 3

Risk level rating"

风险损失风险概率
0＜Q≤10%10%＜Q≤30%30%＜Q≤90%90%＜Q≤100%
0＜Q≤29IIIIII
0~89~1617~2323~29
30≤Q＜79IIIIIIIII
30~5051~6061~7071~79
80≤Q＜95IIIIIIIIIV
80~8485~8889~9291~94
95≤Q≤100IIIIIIVIV
95~9697~9899100

Fig.6

Traveller failure topology network"

Table 4

Bayesian network node information of traveller failure"

系列A系列B系列C系列D系列E
顶事件AB1挂篮体系稳定性不满足C1系统整体稳定性不满足D1

挂篮行走系统抗倾覆

稳定性不满足

E1行走轨道操作不规范
E2轨道连接不紧固
D2

挂篮构件连接紧固性

不满足

E3疲劳作业、夜晚作业
E4安全监督检查不充分
C2设计稳定性不满足
C3施工荷载不平衡D3

自然环境不满足，如大风、冬施保温

措施分布不均

D4挂篮施工安全技术交底不充分
B2挂篮结构安全储备不满足C4自身构件稳定性不满足D5构件材料设计刚度不满足E5出厂质检不合格
E6挂篮构件损耗
D6挂篮构件损坏、构件弯曲、截面削减
C5构件材料设计强度不足
B3挂篮施工工艺不满足C6挂篮组装工艺不满足D7挂篮组拼流程不满足E7施工人员资质不满足
E8安拆技术交底不充分
D8悬臂T构两侧挂篮组拼不同步
C7挂篮行走系统不满足D9同向行走的多榀主桁位移不同步
D10滑道不顺畅，行走速度不易控制
B4悬浇梁段技术不满足C8悬浇梁段技术不满足D11混凝土浇筑速度过快
D12模板结构强度及刚度不满足
C9混凝土强度等不满足D13混凝土配合比不合理或养生不到位
D3

自然环境不满足，如大风、冬施保温

措施分布不均

Fig.7

Layout plan for PAIRA bridge in Bangladesh（unit：m）"

Fig.8

Structure assembly process of traveller system"

Fig.9

Bayesian network derivation of failure probability for PAIRA bridge traveller system"

Fig.10

Structure assembly process of traveller system"

Fig.11

Construction risk forecast chart of traveller system"

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