换道事故严重程度影响因素异质性和可转移性分析

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20230410

Abstract

Abstract:

To investigate the heterogeneity and transferability of factors influencing accident severity， a random parametric Logit model based on mean and variance heterogeneity is constructed to analyze the factors influencing the severity of injury in lane-changing accidents. Divide the severity of accidents into three categories and select 27 potential influencing factors from four aspects： driver characteristics， vehicle characteristics， road characteristics， and road environmental characteristics. Capturing heterogeneity in factors affecting accident severity through mean and variance changes in stochastic parameters，testing the transferability of factors influencing accident severity using log-likelihood ratios，quantifying the impact of factors on accident severity through marginal effects. The results show that there is significant heterogeneity in the factors influencing the severity of accidents in the two groups of lane change and non-lane change. Under the condition that there is no correlation between the various influencing factors， sunlight exposure is a random factor in lane changing accidents， its mean is significantly correlated with the driver's speed change and interstate highways， and its variance is significantly correlated with the complete failure of vehicle disabling functions. Signal control is a random factor in non lane changing accidents， and its mean is correlated with the driver's age as middle-aged， and its variance is correlated with the driver's speed change. There is no transferability and significant difference in the factors influencing the severity of lane change and non-lane change accidents.

Key words: engineering of communications and transportation safety, injury severity, lane change, random parameter Logit with heterogeneity in means and variances, log-likelihood ratio test

CLC Number:

U491

Yi-yong PAN,Yi-wen YOU,Jing-ting WU. Analysis of heterogeneity and transferability of factors influencing severity of lane change accidents[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2025, 55(2): 520-528.

Figures/Tables 7

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References 12

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事故严重程度	换道（比例）	非换道（比例）
仅财产损失	6 086（91.9%）	5 438（88.4%）
轻伤事故	426（6.4%）	617（10%）
重伤事故	109（1.7%）	89（1.5%）

因素	constant［AI］		换道		非换道
因素	constant［AI］		参数估计	Z-值	参数估计	Z-值
道路特性			5.09	15.73	4.58	19.15
	道路系统识别	联邦际公路［BI］	0.457 76	3.21
	道路系统识别	县际公路［CI］	-0.850 02	-2.37
	交叉口类型	T/Y字型交叉［BI］			1.617 93	3.12
	限制车速	限速30~40 km/h［CI］	-0.835 57	-2.51
	限制车速	限速40~50 km/h［CI］			-0.651 01	-2.71
道路环境特性	光照条件	日光照射［AI］（标准差）	1.269 53	2.84
道路环境特性	道路表面状况	干燥路面［AI］	-0.842 44	-5.21
车辆特性	碰撞影响类型	同向碰撞［AI］	0.818 4	5.36
	碰撞影响类型	前后碰撞［BI］			1.247 54	6.7
	禁用功能损坏	全部损坏［AI］	-3.245 25	-11.39
	禁用功能损坏	部分损坏［AI］	-0.679 23	-3.34
	车辆类型	客车［CI］			-1.964 32	-6.58
		客货两用车［CI］			-1.515 51	-2.83
		皮卡车［CI］			-2.058 18	-4.91
		SUV［CI］			-1.778 99	-5.29
		摩托车［AI］	-3.458 56	-4.27
	道路控制	无控制［AI］			1.506 07	5.93
		标志控制［AI］			1.657 16	4.69
		信号控制［AI］（标准差）			4.439 74	2.64
驾驶员特性	是否分心驾驶	不分心［AI］	-0.604 03	-3.7	0.223 74	2.18
	是否分心驾驶	分心［AI］	-1.522 42	-4.47
	驾驶员年龄	0~30岁青少年［CI］	-0.626 71	-2.59
	驾驶员年龄	30~50岁中年［CI］			-0.716 23	-3.27
	驾驶员行为	无明显机动动作［BI］	0.852 15	4.37	1.538 17	9.95
		疏忽操作［BI］	0.532 31	3.44	1.099 06	9.57
		超速/变速［BI］	0.836 99	2.6
均值异质性	日光照射：超/变速［BI］		0.545 42	2.38
	日光照射：州际公路［CI］		-0.332 19	-1.68
	信号控制：中年驾驶员［AI］				-1.216 92	-2.42
方差异质性	日光照射：禁用功能全部损坏［AI］		0.593 94	3.15
方差异质性	信号控制：超/变速［BI］				0.264 83	2.32

影响因素	换道事故	非换道事故	整体事故	换道代入非换道
观察次数（自由度）	6 621（21）	6 144（18）	12 765（22）	（21）
对数似然收敛函数值	-1 616.59	-2 381.53	-3 222.795	-2 145.88
对数似然初始函数值	-7 273.91	-6 749.87	-3 559.270 9	-7 273.91
McFadden²	0 .777 8	0.647 2	0.649 3	0.705 0
似然比检验结果			1 476.09	1 058.58

因素		换道事故
因素		仅财产损失	轻伤事故	重伤事故
道路特性	联邦际公路［AI］	-0.003 9	0.005 1	-0.001 2
	县际公路［CI］	0.000 7	0.000 5	-0.001 2
	限速30~40 km/h［CI］	0.001 0	0.000 6	-0.001 6
道路环境特性	日光照射［AI］	-0.006 7	0.004 9	0.001 8
道路环境特性	干燥路面［AI］	-0.024 3	0.018 0	0.006 3
车辆特性	同向碰撞［AI］	0.012 9	-0.009 4	-0.003 4
	全部损坏［AI］	-0.067 3	0.050 0	0.017 3
	部分损坏［AI］	-0.009 5	0.007 1	0.002 4
	摩托车［AI］	-0.002 5	0.001 9	0.000 5
驾驶员特性	不分心［AI］	-0.016 0	0.012 0	0.004 0
	分心［AI］	-0.002 3	0.001 7	0.000 6
	0~30岁青少年［CI］	0.001 1	0.000 9	-0.002 0
	无明显机动动作［BI］	-0.004 0	0.004 9	0.000 9
	疏忽操作［BI］	-0.008 1	0.009 8	-0.001 6
	超速/变速［BI］	-0.001 3	0.001 6	-0.000 3

因素		非换道事故
因素		仅财产损失	轻伤事故	重伤事故
道路特性	T/Y字型交叉［BI］	-0.001 3	0.001 3	0.000 0
道路特性	限速40~50 km/h［CI］	0.002 2	0.000 5	-0.002 8
车辆特性	前后碰撞［BI］	-0.089 5	0.092 4	-0.002 9
	客车［CI］	0.012 0	0.002 3	-0.014 3
	客货两用车［CI］	0.001 0	0.000 2	-0.001 2
	皮卡车［CI］	0.002 4	0.000 5	-0.002 9
	SUV［CI］	0.006 1	0.001 2	-0.007 3
	无控制［AI］	0.113 8	-0.095 4	-0.018 4
	标志控制［AI］	0.005 1	-0.004 2	-0.000 9

Analysis of heterogeneity and transferability of factors influencing severity of lane change accidents

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