基于关联路链组的城市路网短时交通流预测模型

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20211391

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to divide the associated road chains of urban road network and accurately predict the traffic operation state， calculate the importance of each road section and the shortest distance path length to represent the spatial characteristics of the road section， this paper proposes the density peak clustering algorithm to identify the correlation road chain set with strong temporal and spatial correlation of traffic flow. A traffic flow prediction model is constructed by the long short-term memory neural network based on road chain groups division（RCGD-LSTMNN），and takes the spatiotemporal two-dimensional matrix of all sections in the same road chain as the model input. In Beijing road network， for example， the fourth ring road in the backbone network is divided into eight associated road chain group， the model accuracy can reach more than 95%， and is superior to the traditional LSTM and BP model predicted results， show that the presented model has good applicability and accuracy of stability， applicable to different spatial and temporal patterns of road traffic state forecasting chain group.

Key words: engineering of communications and transportation system, road chain groups division, traffic prediction, density peak clustering, long short-term memory neural network, temporal-spatial correlation

CLC Number:

U491.14

Jian-cheng WENG,Rui-cong WEI,Han-mei HE,Hai-hui XU,Jing-jing WANG. Urban road network short-term traffic flow prediction model based on associated road chain group[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2023, 53(11): 3104-3112.

Figures/Tables 10

Table 1

Table 2

Fig.1

Fig.2

Table 3

Fig.3

Fig.4

Table 4

Clustering results of road chain groups"

类别	路段名称	数量
第1组	东三环北路、东三环北路（辅路）、北三环东路（主路）、东四环北路（主路）、北四环东路（主路）、北四环东路（辅路）、京密路	7
第2组	东二环（建国门桥-广渠门桥）、东二环（朝阳门桥-建国门桥）、东二环（首都机场高速公路-东四十条桥）、东二环（东四十条桥-朝阳门立交）、东二环（广渠门桥-光明桥）、东二环（光明桥-左安门桥）、东三环中路（主路）、东三环中路（辅路）、东四环中路（主路）、朝阳门外大街、建国门内大街、建国门北大街、建国门南大街、建国门外大街、广渠门外大街、广渠路、广渠门内大街、珠市口东大街	18
第3组	南二环（左安门桥-玉蜓桥）、东三环南路（主路）、东三环南路（辅路）、南三环中路（主路）、南三环东路、南三环东路（辅路）、东四环南路、东四环南路（辅路）、南四环东路、南四环东路（辅路）、京沪高速、松榆南路、双龙路	13
第4组	南四环西路、南四环西路（辅路）、南四环中路、南四环中路（辅路）、京开高速	5
第5组	南二环（右安门桥-菜户营桥）、南二环（玉蜓桥-陶然桥）、南二环（右安门桥-陶然桥）、西二环（广安门桥-菜户营桥）、南三环西路、南三环西路（辅路）、西三环中路（主路）、西三环中路（辅路）、西三环南路、西三环南路（辅路）、西四环南路、西四环南路（辅路）、丽泽路、京港澳高速、丰台北路	15
第6组	西二环（复兴门桥-阜成门桥）、西二环（官园桥-阜成门桥）、西二环（复兴门桥-广安门桥）、复兴门内大街、广安门外大街、广安门内大街、三里河路、广安路、复兴路、东长安街、西长安街、骡马市大街、珠市口西大街、复兴门外大街	14
第7组	西三环北路、西三环北路（辅路）、西四环北路（主路）、西四环北路（辅路）、西四环中路（主路）、西四环中路（辅路）、阜成路	7
第8组	西二环（西直门桥-官园桥）、北二环（安定门桥-首都机场高速公路）、北二环（德胜门桥-西直门桥）、北三环西路（主路）、北三环中路、北三环中路（辅路）、北四环西路（主路）、北四环西路（辅路）、北四环中路、北四环中路（辅路）、西直门南大街、安定门外大街、京藏高速公路、安定路	14

Table 4

Fig.5

Table 5

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道路等级	道路名称	道路权值
1	快速路	10
2	主干路	8
3	次干路	6
4	支路	3

指标	道路等级Y₁	路段长度Y₂	路段连接度Y₃
信息熵	0.86	0.96	0.95
指标权重	0.64	0.14	0.21

n_epoch	batch_size=1		batch_size=32		batch_size=64
n_epoch	MRE	RMSE	MRE	RMSE	MRE	RMSE
300	4.655	2.705	4.518	2.446	4.558	2.424
320	4.831	2.721	4.539	2.453	4.585	2.431
340	4.742	2.694	4.475	2.264	4.605	2.436
360	4.603	2.658	4.513	2.438	4.634	2.437

不同预测模型性能	实验（a）		实验（b）
不同预测模型性能	MRE	RMSE	MRE	RMSE
RCGD-LSTMNN	4.291	1.935	4.970	2.246
BP-NN	6.058	4.185	6.865	4.972
LSTM NN	7.120	4.280	8.041	5.164

Urban road network short-term traffic flow prediction model based on associated road chain group

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