解决交通事故数据分析中零值问题的模型

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb201503013

吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2015, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3): 769-775.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb201503013

解决交通事故数据分析中零值问题的模型

徐建^{1, 2}, 孙璐^{1, 3}

1.东南大学交通学院,南京 210096;
2.美国德克萨斯州大学奥斯汀分校交通研究中心,奥斯汀 78712;
3.美国华盛顿Catholic大学土木工程系,华盛顿 20064

收稿日期:2013-08-12 出版日期:2015-05-01 发布日期:2015-05-01
通讯作者: 孙璐(1972-),男,教授,博士生导师.研究方向:交通工程,道路工程.E-mail:sunl@cua.edu E-mail:xujianseutc@seu.edu.cn
作者简介:徐建(1985-),男,博士研究生.研究方向:交通安全.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(51150110478,51250110075); 教育部霍英东基金项目(114024)

Modeling of excess zeros issue in crash count andysis

XU Jian^{1, 2}, SUN Lu^{1, 3}

1.School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210096, China;
2.Center for Transportation Research, University of Texas at Austin, Austin 78712, USA;
3. Department of Civil Engineering, Catholic University of America, Washington DC 20064, USA

Received:2013-08-12 Online:2015-05-01 Published:2015-05-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 运用多种拟合优度措施,包括离差信息准则(DIC)、平均绝对偏差(MAD)、预测均方误差(MSPE)和最大累计残差(MCPD)以及交叉验证评价法(CV),以美国某州2010年交通事故为实例,运用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛算法,综合比较和分析了零膨胀泊松模型和负二项模型、多层零膨胀泊松模型和负二项模型以及泊松Lindley和负二项Lindley模型等。研究结果表明:3类模型中Lindley模型拟合效果最好,多层零膨胀模型其次;而6种模型中负二项Lindley模型拟合效果最好。

关键词: 交通运输安全工程, 交通事故, 零膨胀模型, 多层零膨胀模型, Lindley模型, 拟合优度

Abstract: The performances of several mathematical models are evaluated for the investigation of the excess zeros issue in crash data analysis. These models include: zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models, multiple zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models, Poisson- and binomial-Lindley models. In the evaluation several goodness-of-fit measures are employed, including Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), Mean Absolute Deviance (MAD), Mean Square Predictive Error (MSPE), Maximum Cumulative Residual Plot Deviance (MCPD) and Cross-Validation assessment (CV). The evaluation is conducted based on the crash data sets of a state of USA in year 2010, and Markov chain and Monte Carlo methods are used. Statistic results show that Lindley models are preferred to multilevel zero-inflated models; among all the six models, the negative binomial-Lindley performs the best.

Key words: traffic and transportation safety engineering, crash count, zero-inflated models, multilevel zero-inflated models, Lindley models, goodness-of-fit

中图分类号:

U491.31

徐建, 孙璐. 解决交通事故数据分析中零值问题的模型[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2015, 45(3): 769-775.

XU Jian, SUN Lu. Modeling of excess zeros issue in crash count andysis[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2015, 45(3): 769-775.

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解决交通事故数据分析中零值问题的模型

Modeling of excess zeros issue in crash count andysis

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