考虑行人差异性的人群疏散最优决策理论模型

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb20181163

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为研究人群在疏散过程中的行为差异性特征，提出了基于最优决策理论的行人疏散模型，模型引入行人“视觉区域”和差异性个体对空间可利用率的不同敏感度，通过建立空间可利用率评估标准和基于社会“交通规范”的行走方向偏好机制，描述个体在行为和决策层面上的差异性特征。本文对人群实验中异性单向人群和异性对流人群中的超越行为、对流人群渠化现象和对流人群渠化的相变过程进行了仿真，并通过与其他模型仿真结果的对比和人群基本关系图的研究对该模型进行了定性和定量验证。结果显示：该模型在异性人群动力学仿真方面有较好的适用性，可为紧急事故中异性人群安全疏散过程的疏导和人群管理提供合理、有效的建议。

关键词: 交通运输系统工程, 疏散模型, 超越行为, 决策行为, 人群渠化

Abstract:

In order to investigate the personal characteristics in heterogeneous pedestrian crowds during evacuation, an optimization-based evacuation model is proposed. The concepts of visual area of each agent and personal sensitivity to the space availability are introduced. A side preference of each pedestrian is implemented based on traffic social norms. The criteria for the evaluating of space availability are established to depict the personal heterogeneity from the perspective of both behavior and decision-making. The model was employed to simulate overtaking behavior and lane formation and the phase change of pedestrian lanes in heterogeneous pedestrian crowds was observed experimentally. The model was validated by comparing the simulation results with experiment date and with the results obtained by other evacuation model. The fundamental diagram of heterogeneous crowds was also investigated. The results show that the proposed model could simulate reasonably the personal behavior as well as the self-organization phenomena in heterogeneous crowds, thus providing the reasonable and effective strategies for crowds management in emergent situation.

Key words: engineering of communications and transportation system, evacuation model, overtaking behavior, decision-making behavior, lane formation

中图分类号:

U491

张大伟,祝海涛. 考虑行人差异性的人群疏散最优决策理论模型[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2020, 50(2): 549-556.

Da-wei ZHANG,Hai-tao ZHU. An optimization⁃based evacuation model considering pedestrian heterogeneity[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2020, 50(2): 549-556.

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人群模式	仿真时间/s	绝对误差/s
a ₂	2.2	0.38
a ₄	5.0	1.80
b ₂	3.4	0.46
b ₄	4.8	0.21
c ₂	3.6	0.20
c ₄	5.8	0.75

人群模式	T_r/s	T_s/s	绝对误差/s
1	1.50	2.1	0.60
2	5.23	6.6	1.37
3	7.73	9.1	1.37
4	9.73	11.6	1.87