基于生存分析的城市桥梁使用性能衰变模型

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb20190082

Abstract

Abstract:

By using bridge inspection records in Shanghai urban bridge management system, this paper established a probabilistic prediction model of bridge performance deterioration based on survival analysis. At the same time, Weibull distribution functions are used to describe the performance decay behavior of various bridge components in different condition states. The results show that the current urban bridges in Shanghai have a relatively short duration at condition rating A and B, and the decay speed of the deck system and superstructure is higher than the substructure. Applied a practical example of network-level bridge decay prediction from 2016 to 2018, the differences between the regression analysis, Markov chain and survival analysis method are compared. It is verified that the survival analysis model has higher prediction accuracy.

Key words: road engineering, bridge performance, prediction model, survival analysis, Weibull-distribution

CLC Number:

U418

Yu FANG,Li-jun SUN. Urban bridge performance decay model based on survival analysis[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2020, 50(2): 557-564.

Figures/Tables 9

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等级	状态	BCI范围	养护对策
A级	完好	[90,100]	日常养护
B级	良好	[80,90)	保养小修
C级	合格	[66,80)	针对性小修或中修工程
D级	不合格	[50,66)	检测评估后进行中修、大修或加固工程
E级	危险	[0,50)	检测评估后进行大修、加固、或改建工程

年份	桥梁数量	检测记录数	有效记录数
2004	1 390	1 091	652
2005	1 550	1 357	839
2006	1 601	1 447	936
2007	1 644	1 486	1 035
2008	1 748	1 608	1 151
2009	1 804	1 590	1 193
2010	1 899	1 686	1 267
2011	1 972	1 727	1 331
2012	1 911	1 756	1 458
2013	1 982	1 801	1 569
2014	2 177	1 992	1 709
2015	2 305	2 027	1 820

等级	部位	β	γ
A	全桥	1.272 1	14.121 6
	桥面系	1.193 7	13.176 1
	上部结构	1.281 8	14.421 2
	下部结构	1.244 3	14.222 4
B	全桥	1.205 7	15.901 6
	桥面系	1.371 2	15.833 9
	上部结构	1.084 4	15.118 5
	下部结构	1.367 5	21.437 8
C	全桥	1.211 0	22.841 9
	桥面系	1.379 5	19.291 7
	上部结构	1.116 3	15.407 2
	下部结构	1.166 7	21.839 4
D	全桥	1.251 6	22.158 4
	桥面系	1.574 9	23.934 5
	上部结构	1.385 2	27.225 3
	下部结构	1.391 2	29.411 2

年份	状态等级
年份	A	B	C	D	E
2015	69.60	24.36	5.56	0.49	0.00
2016	49.75	41.55	7.44	1.17	0.09
2017	52.40	39.61	7.15	0.80	0.04
2018	52.24	41.27	5.82	0.59	0.08

年份	模型	A级		B级		C级
年份	模型	预测	误差	预测	误差	预测	误差
2016	回归	51.43	3	16.31	61	21.32	187
	马氏链	42.35	15	29.82	28	19.71	165
	生存	57.74	16	31.01	25	9.33	26
2017	回归	46.34	12	13.73	65	28.22	295
	马氏链	37.69	28	29.01	27	22.29	212
	生存	56.57	8	31.63	20	9.70	36
2018	回归	38.47	26	20.84	50	28.99	398
	马氏链	33.54	36	27.94	3	24.37	319
	生存	55.28	6	32.28	22	10.14	74

Urban bridge performance decay model based on survival analysis

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