吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2021, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (2): 697-703.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb20191122

• 计算机科学与技术 • 上一篇    

基于马尔可夫过程的风电系统可靠性分析

赵志欣1,2(),唐慧1,刘仁云1()   

  1. 1.长春师范大学 数学学院，长春 130032
    2.吉林大学 数学学院，长春 130012
  • 收稿日期:2019-12-09 出版日期:2021-03-01 发布日期:2021-02-09
  • 通讯作者: 刘仁云 E-mail:jczzx10@163.com;liurenyun2005@163.com
  • 作者简介:赵志欣（1982-），男，副教授，博士.研究方向：可靠性理论.E-mail:jczzx10@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(11601040);吉林省科技厅项目(20180101224JC)

Reliability analysis of wind power generation system based on Markov process

Zhi-xin ZHAO1,2(),Hui TANG1,Ren-yun LIU1()   

  1. 1.School of Mathematics，Changchun Normal University，Changchun 130032，China
    2.School of Mathematics，Jilin University，Changchun 130012，China
  • Received:2019-12-09 Online:2021-03-01 Published:2021-02-09
  • Contact: Ren-yun LIU E-mail:jczzx10@163.com;liurenyun2005@163.com

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摘要：

本文讨论了具有多种维修策略的多状态可修退化风电系统。根据风电系统运行环境和原理，利用马尔可夫过程和可靠性理论建立了风电系统的可靠性模型，该风电系统随时间变化可退化成多个离散状态，且系统在功能完好和完全故障之间的多个中间状态相互转化；然后，将该系统转化为一个抽象柯西问题，探讨了该可修退化系统各状态概率的存在唯一性；最后，在能效等级确定的条件下，对该退化系统各状态概率和可用度等指标进行了模拟。研究发现，通过马尔可夫过程可以描述可修退化风电系统，同时利用该模型可以有效地对系统相关可靠性指标进行定量分析。

关键词: 系统工程, 可修系统, 马尔可夫过程, 可用度

Abstract:

This paper discusses a multi-state repairable and degraded wind power generation system with multiple maintenance strategies. According to the operating environment and the principle of wind power generation system， the reliability model of this system is established by using Markov process and reliability theory. This wind power generation system can be degraded into several discrete states over time， and the system can be converted into more intermediate states between the good state and complete failure. Then the system can be transformed into an abstract Cauchy problem， and the existence and uniqueness of the state probabilities of the repairable degenerate system are discussed. Finally， the simulation of the state probability， availability and other indexes of the degradation system was carried out under the determined energy efficiency grade. The study shows that the wind power system can be described by Markov process， and this model can effectively make quantitative analysis of the system reliability index.

Key words: systems engineering, repairable system, Markov process, availability

中图分类号: 

  • TB112

图1

风电机组系统可靠性框图"

图2

两状态可修风电系统状态"

图3

退化风电系统状态"

图4

系统状态转移图"

图5

状态概率"

图6

瞬态可用度Av(t)"

图7

输出性能的τ(t)"

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