关键词: 交通运输系统工程, 机非冲突, 延误, 排队论, 间隙理论, 二元回归

Abstract: In order to investigate quantitatively the time delay of the rightturn vehicles at the motor and nonmotorvehicle mixed traffic intersection, the time delay was characterized by the travel time, namely, the difference between the actual travel time of the rightturn vehicle and that without any interference. From the analysis of the conflict between the rightturn motorvehicle and the straightgoing bicycle at the 4phase signal intersection, the running behavior of the nonmotorvehicle was established. Applying the queue theory and the gap theory, a travel time model of the rightturn motorvehicle at such intersections. Then a dualistic regression model for the travel time of the motorvehicle was derived taking the flowrates of the rightturn motorvehicles and the straightgoing bicycles as 2 independent variables. These 2 models were verified by the survey data in Shijiazhuang city, and the results show that the queue theory and the gap theory are only suitable for the condition of low bicycle flow rate and the dualistic regression model is applicable to broader conditions, and the latter is validated by the Ftest.

Key words: engineering of communications and transportation system, motorand nonmotorvehicle conflict, delay, queue theory, gap theory, dualistic regression