›› 2012, Vol. ›› Issue (03): 581-587.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

突发灾害下城市路网交通流可靠性运行态势

林赐云1,2, 王琳虹2, 龚勃文1,2, 赵丁选1,3, 杨兆升1,2   

  1. 1. 吉林大学 汽车仿真与控制国家重点实验室, 长春 130022;
    2. 吉林大学 交通学院, 长春 130022;
    3. 吉林大学 机械科学与工程学院, 长春 130022
  • 收稿日期:2011-04-25 出版日期:2012-05-01
  • 通讯作者: 王琳虹(1984-),女,博士研究生.研究方向:交通环境与安全技术.E-mail:wanghonglin0520@126.com E-mail:wanghonglin0520@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    "863"国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2009AA11Z218);中国博士后科学基金项目(2011M500615,20100481054);教育部博士学科点新教师基金项目(20110061120043).

Analysis of traffic flow reliability operation trend of urban road network under sudden disaster

LIN Ci-yun1,2, WANG Lin-hong2, GONG Bo-wen1,2, ZHAO Ding-xuan1,3, YANG Zhao-sheng1,2   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Automobile Simulation and Control, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China;
    2. College of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China;
    3. College of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China
  • Received:2011-04-25 Online:2012-05-01

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摘要： 为了识别突发灾害下交通流运行过程中路网可靠性的变化规律和潜在的运行态势,采用Rough集理论,结合城市道路交通状态判别、预测的知识,构建了突发灾害下路网可靠性知识表达系统。通过对路网元素属性数值的离散化处理,路网可靠性决策表的属性约简等一系列操作过程,实现了对路网可靠性运行态势的逻辑推理。试验结果表明:路网可靠性能够较好地拟合突发灾害下路网交通流的运行特征,交通路网可靠性态势分析的知识表达系统对可靠度的预测精度可达90%以上。

关键词: 交通运输系统工程, 交通流可靠性, 突发灾害, 粗集理论, 交通态势估计

Abstract: To identify the road network traffic flow reliability evolution and the potential trend under sudden disaster, the Rough set theory in combination with the urban traffic state identification and prediction knowledges were used to construct a knowledge representation system for the road traffic network reliability under sudden disaster. The logic reasoning of road traffic network reliability operation trend was realized through a series of operation processes, such as discretization of attribute data of the road traffic network elements, attribute and data reduction of the road traffic network reliability decision making table, etc. The experiment results demonstrated that the road traffic network reliability fits well with the traffic flow charactesistic under sudden disaster. The prediction accuracy of the proposed knowledge representation system for the road traffic network reliability reaches up to 90%.

Key words: engineering of communication and transportation system, traffic flow reliability, sudden disaster, rough set theory, traffic situation assessment

中图分类号: 

  • U491.1
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