吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2013, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (06): 1482-1487.doi: 10.7964/jdxbgxb201306008
李志斌1, 刘攀1, 金茂菁2, 徐铖铖1
LI Zhi-bin1, LIU Pan1, JIN Mao-jing2, XU Cheng-cheng1
摘要:
研究了个体车辆遇到运动波(Kinematic waves)前后行驶轨迹的特征,分析了追尾事故发生条件,将多个车辆轨迹进行集计分析,提出了基于集计交通流数据的追尾事故风险预测模型。结果表明:运动波传播过程中追尾事故概率与事故风险指数及上游占有率标准差显著相关;采用模型对实际高速公路常发拥堵路段追尾事故的预测结果符合真实情况;交通流由自由流转向拥堵过程中追尾事故风险最大,拥堵中运动波的传播会增加追尾事故风险。
中图分类号:
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