关键词: 交通运输系统工程, 行人交通, 基于危险的持续模型, 危险函数, 交通行为

Abstract:

A waiting duration model of pedestrian crossing was proposed by using hazardbased duration models based on observed data. The framework of baseline hazard adopted parametric shape and nonparametric shape. The factors that could effect crossing behaviours were analyzed, particularly for crossing in violation of traffic rules. The results show that the nonparametric model can present an accurate description of waiting behaviours. The crossing behaviours have significant dependence on time, the hazard of traffic violation increase when time elapse. The results provide a useful reference for pedestrian crossing analysis and traffic behaviour simulation.

Key words: engineering of communications and transportation system, pedestrian traffic, hazard based duration model, hazard function, traffic behaviour