关键词: 交通运输系统工程, 路径更换行为, 逐日出行, 有限理性, MNP, 无差别阈值, 驾驶员训练模拟器

Abstract:

A model framework to capture the commuter day-to-day dynamic route switching behavior was proposed based on the bounded rationality theory whose application is mainly embodied in the indifference threshold. To express the experience accumulation process in commuter day-to-day travel and the serial correlation and the contemporaneous correlation across the route selection, an indifference threshold model for the pretrip and enroute switching behavior was built in the form of the multionmial probit model. The driver day-to-day dynamic route switching behavior under different ATIS information was simulated using a driver training simulator and the obtained data were used to calibrate the parameters of the indifference threshold model. The parameter estimation results gave insights into the effects of the ATIS information, the driver individual attributes, the imformation quality and the schedule delay on the commuter daytoday dynamic route switching behavior and provided a useful reference for the further analysis of the driver behavior.

Key words: engineering of communications and transportation system, route switching behavior, daytoday travel, bounded rationality, multinomial probit model(MNP), indifference threshold, Driver Training Simulator