基于车道选择特性的环形交叉口行程时间预测

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb201705012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为直观地反映环形交叉口内车辆的运行状态,建立了一种基于车道选择特性的环形交叉口车辆行程时间预测模型。利用车辆换道初始位置的临界累积概率标定了环形交叉口入环区、绕环区、出环区分界线;根据实地数据分析并建立了车辆的车道选择概率与流量的关系模型;综合考虑环岛的几何条件、车辆排队以及换道等因素的影响,建立了包含入环时间、绕环时间与出环时间的环形交叉口车辆行程时间预测模型。最后,通过实测数据对模型中参数进行标定。结果表明:本文模型的平均预测误差在10%以内,满足精度要求。该模型可为环形交叉口状态评价与控制方法提供依据。

关键词: 交通运输系统工程, 环形交叉口, 行程时间, 车道选择概率, 排队延误

Abstract: In order to directly reflect the traffic state at the roundabout, a model of vehicle travel time at roundabout was proposed based on vehicle lane choosing characteristics. The boundaries among the entering area, circling area and existing area at a roundabout are calibrated using the accumulative probability of the initial location of lane-changing. A relation model between the probability of lane choosing and traffic volume is developed with real field data. Considering the influences of the factors of roundabout geometry condition, vehicle queuing and lane changing, a travel time prediction model was established to obtain entering time, circling time and existing time. Finally, the model parameters were calibrated using survey data. Results show that the error of the prediction model is within 10% that meets the accuracy requirement. Thus, the model is beneficial for the traffic state evaluation and control method of the roundabout.

Key words: engineering of communication and transportation system, roundabout, travel time, probability of lane choosing, queuing delay

中图分类号:

U491.1

李志慧, 汪昆维, 宋现敏, 刘鑫山, 谌垚, 罗瑞琪. 基于车道选择特性的环形交叉口行程时间预测[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(5): 1411-1419.

LI Zhi-hui, WANG Kun-wei, SONG Xian-min, LIU Xin-shan, SHEN Yao, LUO Rui-qi. Roundabout travel time prediction based on characteristics of lane choosing[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(5): 1411-1419.

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