关键词: 交通运输系统工程, 拥挤收费, 交通需求管理, 非集计模型, 交通影响评价, 交通方式

Abstract: Taking the evaluation of the impact of the traffic congestion pricing policy(TCPP) on the traffic system as the study object, an evaluation index system of the impact of TCPP on traffic system and a prediction model system of the residents response behavior to the policy were developed using the disaggregate travel demand prediction theory. The impact of TCPP on the traffic system was evaluated comprehensively in terms of travel mode, temporal and spatial distributions of the traffic volume. The feasibility of adopting the TCPP in Nanhai district of Foshan city was analyzed as a real case study. The results indicate that the implementation of TCPP in Nanhai benefits for smoothing the temporal and spatial distributions of the traffic volume and reducing the road saturation in the congestion area, but has little effect on the optimization of traffic structure and adjustment of travel time. The established analysis mode based on the disaggregate theory“traffic condition analysis—management policymaking—travel response behavior prediction—policy effect evaluation” is useful for big cities in China to make, evaluate and implement the traffic demand management strategies.

Key words: engineering of communications and transportation system, congestion pricing, transportation demand management, disaggregate model, traffic impact evaluation, travel model