手机信息干预下寒冷赛区行人候车决策行为

doi:10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb20210517

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

大型寒冷赛事活动中，为缓解行人在站台长时间候车时饱受低温、风雪等恶劣天气的侵扰，提高赛区出行服务质量，本文从信息服务的角度提出基于手机信息干预的行人决策引导与客流调控方式。在实地问卷调查的基础上，分析寒冷环境下行人候车行为特性，基于Nested Logit模型建立了手机信息干预下的行人候车决策行为模型，探讨了多因素耦合作用对行人候车决策行为的影响，对关键变量进行敏感性分析，从信息发布的内容、频次等方面提出了管理建议。结果表明：与传统站牌信息相比，手机信息干预有助于提高行人候车时采取临时取暖的概率，提高行人候车时的服务体验；受手机信息干预时，行人的候车决策行为主要受取暖地点布设、距离比赛时间的影响，此时，建议管理者在制定信息内容时，重点突出临时取暖和比赛的信息；当信息发布频次为2时，行人接受信息引导的概率达到36.6%，调控效果最好。本文研究成果可为赛区管理者调控客流、提高赛区信息服务水平等提供理论基础和数据支撑。

关键词: 交通运输系统工程, 寒冷赛事, 信息干预, 离散选择模型, 候车行为

Abstract:

In cold mega-competition events， in order to alleviate pedestrians suffering from severe weather such as low temperature， wind and snow while waiting for a long time in the bus station， and improve the quality of travel service in the area， a decision-making guidance and passenger flow control method was proposed based on mobile information intervention from the perspective of information service. Based on the results of questionnaire survey， the characteristics of waiting behavior in cold environment were analyzed， and a decision-making behavior model for pedestrians waiting for bus was established based on the Nested Logit model. With the model， the coupling influence of multiple factors on pedestrians' decision-making behavior was discussed and the sensitivity analysis of key variable was carried out. The management suggestions were put forward from the content and frequency of information release. The results show that， compared with the traditional stop sign information， mobile phone information intervention can help to improve the probability of temporary heating and improve the service experience of pedestrians. With the interference of mobile information， pedestrians' decision-making behavior is mainly affected by the layout of temporary heating places and the time from the start of competition. At this time， it is suggested that managers should focus on the information about temporary heating and competition when formulating the content of mobile information. When the frequency of information release is twice per hour， the probability of pedestrians receiving information guidance reaches the highest， which is about 36.6%， indicating that the control effect of information intervention reaches the best. The research can provide theoretical basis and data support for the intervention of passenger flow and the improvement of information service level in the competition area.

Key words: engineering of communication and transportation system, cold events, information intervention, discrete choice model, decision-making behavior

中图分类号:

U491.4

黄文博,陈艳艳,柴树山. 手机信息干预下寒冷赛区行人候车决策行为[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2023, 53(1): 132-140.

Wen-bo HUANG,Yan-yan CHEN,Shu-shan CHAI. Decision⁃making behavior of pedestrians in cold competition area under the intervention of mobile information[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2023, 53(1): 132-140.

图/表 11

图1

图2

图3

图4

表1

图5

图6

表2

NL模型标定结果（水平1）"

变量	受手机信息干预			只受传统站牌信息干预
变量	Estimate	Std. Err.	t?Test	Estimate	Std. Err.	t?Test
固有哑元	-3.189	1.816	-1.756	1.824	0.939	1.943
距离比赛时间	-1.009	0.308	-3.275	-0.030	0.003	-9.557
景观环境	-0.720	0.446	-1.615	-0.347	0.198	-1.756
取暖地点布设	1.122	0.347	3.236	0.429	0.191	2.253
公交发车时间	-0.416	0.347	-1.199	-0.325	0.197	-1.650
比赛期待程度	-0.429	0.208	-2.060	0.158	0.248	0.634
寒冷感知	0.066	0.379	0.176	-0.555	0.214	-2.598
室外最大候车时间	0.006	0.003	1.682	0.006	0.002	3.201
信息发布频次	1.155	0.461	2.503	0.325	0.197	1.648
职业1	-0.987	0.569	-1.734	-0.185	0.246	-0.751
职业2	0.562	0.767	0.733	-0.627	0.325	-1.928
气温	-0.133	0.115	-1.157	-0.180	0.064	-2.816
风速	2.020	1.209	1.670	-1.460	0.633	-2.306
$L (0)$	-224.580			-482.430
$L (θ ?)$	-173.185			-394.070
$- 2 [L (0) - L (θ ?)]$	102.789			176.720
$ρ 2$	0.229			0.183
$ρ ˉ 2$	0.131			0.148

表2

表3

NL模型标定结果（水平2）"

变量	受手机信息干预	只受传统站牌信息干预
变量	Estimate	Std. Err.	t?Test
Constant 1	0.343	0.826	0.416
距离比赛时间	-0.007	0.003	-2.552
景观环境	-0.942	0.201	-4.689
取暖地点布设	0.411	0.171	2.404
公交发车时间	-0.674	0.179	-3.767
比赛期待程度	0.616	0.149	4.149
寒冷感知	-0.506	0.185	-2.731
室外最大候车时间	-0.004	0.002	-2.189
职业1	0.807	0.238	3.384
职业2	-1.605	0.272	-5.906
候车点客流量	-0.961	0.185	-5.205
公交载客人数	-1.152	0.220	-5.235
信息发布频次	0.331	0.164	2.020
$λ 2$	0.482	0.189	2.549
$L (0)$	-707.010
$L (θ ?)$	-557.129
$- 2 [L (0) - L (θ ?)]$	299.763
$ρ 2$	0.212
$ρ ˉ 2$	0.177

表3

表4

图7

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基本属性	统计分析
性别	男性		女性
性别	39%		61%
年龄/岁	<20	20~40	40~60	≥60
年龄/岁	13.4%	58.4%	15.7%	12.5%
月收入/万元	<0.5	0.5~1	1~1.5	≥1.5
月收入/万元	70.1%	23.2%	4.7%	2.0%
教育程度	高中及以下	本专科	硕士及以上	—
教育程度	27.0%	54.9%	18.1%	—
职业	机关及事业单位人员	学生	企业或技术人员	自由职业及退休人员
职业	22.7%	35.7%	23.3%	18.3%
居住地区	东北地区	华北地区	港澳台地区	其他地区
居住地区	80.5%	8.7%	2.3%	8.5%

行为	受手机信息干预/%	只受传统站牌信息干预/%
室外候车	49.4	55.7
临时取暖	50.6	44.3